Good morning. No, “surrender squad” is not an off-brand Marvel remake: it is, according to the Mail on Sunday and the Conservative former Brexit negotiator Lord Frost, the only way to describe an “all-powerful team of more than 100 civil servants being assembled to run the UK’s negotiations with Brussels” with the goal of reversing Brexit by stealth.
This may come as news to the Labour government, which has generally appeared petrified of any move that could be represented as a betrayal of Brexit, and included in its manifesto red lines on “no return to the single market, the customs union, or freedom of movement” – that is, the things that make the EU the EU.
Within those guardrails, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves are pursuing a more modest “reset” in relations. But as European leaders meet to discuss the bloc’s relationship with the UK today, all the evidence suggests they are deeply wary, and the barriers for progress are high. For today’s newsletter, the Guardian’s Brussels correspondent, Jennifer Rankin, explains why.
PS: You’ve probably got 25 December marked in your calendar as an occasion for celebration: that’s right, it’s the annual First Edition List of Annoying Things. Last year’s featured the rise of the Dadcast, Matt Hancock’s use of TikTok and AI toothbrushes, and we hope to reach that tiresome standard again. We’d love to include some of the stuff that’s really got on your wick in 2024 – ideally, generally relatable features of contemporary life, not just gripes about how your partner picks their nose – so if you have any suggestions, just hit reply to this email. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
UK politics | Keir Starmer must strengthen the rules around political donations to protect the electoral system from foreign interference, the Electoral Commission has said, amid rising concerns about Elon Musk’s plans to donate millions to Reform UK. The elections watchdog said that company donations should be limited to the amount they have made in the UK.
Middle East | Israel’s restriction of Gaza’s water supply to levels below minimum needs amounts to an act of genocide and extermination as a crime against humanity, a human rights report has alleged. Human Rights Watch accused Israel of deliberately cutting clean water supplies and forcing people to resort to contaminated sources.
Technology | More than 140 Facebook content moderators have been diagnosed with severe post-traumatic stress disorder caused by exposure to graphic social media content including murders, suicides, child sexual abuse and terrorism. The moderators worked at a facility in Kenya for a company contracted by the social media firm.
Water bills | Troubled Thames Water will be allowed to increase customer bills by just over a third by 2030 after a decision by the industry regulator, the Guardian has learned. The increase is far less than the 59% requested by the company, which has about £19bn of debt.
UK politics | Up to 100 Labour MPs could vote against the government’s decision to rule out spending £10bn compensating Waspi women if a vote is held. Women born in the 1950s who were not aware of changes to the state pension age will not receive compensation despite a recommendation from the parliamentary ombudsman in March.
In depth: ‘It feels like a headline from a different planet’
Today, EU leaders are meeting at the European Council in Brussels to discuss a range of issues affecting the bloc. But a measure of the difficulties British negotiators face can be found in where UK relations lie on the agenda: Volodymyr Zelenskyy is visiting, and the post-Brexit landscape is up for discussion at the same lunch meeting as the war in Ukraine, the Middle East crisis and Donald Trump’s presidency. With that competition, it’ll be lucky to get a mention over coffee.
That context indicates why the “surrender squad” rhetoric is fairly implausible: quite apart from the UK’s own intentions, any “surrender” requires that your counterpart is at least interested in the conquest. “It feels like a headline from a different planet,” Jennifer Rankin said. “If it registers at all in Brussels, it’s as an indication of why the UK government is nervous about the reset – and why they’re treading very carefully.”
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What does the UK want from a ‘reset’?
When he became the first British prime minister to meet European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen since Boris Johnson in 2020, Starmer emphasised that his government would make a tonal break with the past.
There would be, he said; “A return to pragmatism, to doing business in a respectful way and in a way which will focus on deliverables, rather than charging to the nearest camera to use a megaphone.” The Tories have sought to cast any move in that direction – like the hiring of a new negotiator – as “arrogant capitulation”, which is not the mood generally associated with capitulation, but never mind.
As for what those “deliverables” might be: a joint statement by Starmer and von der Leyen referenced the war in Ukraine and global “economic headwinds”, and said that discussions would start with “defining together the areas in which strengthened cooperation would be mutually beneficial, such as the economy, energy, security and resilience”.
All of that could mean new terms on a trade deal, regular UK-EU summits – von der Leyen and Starmer agreed to an annual schedule – and better coordination on migration and foreign policy. A couple of specific areas on trade are priorities: negotiating a veterinary agreement that would mean fewer border checks for meat, fish, dairy and live animals, and agreeing a mutual recognition agreement for professional qualifications.
Foreign secretary David Lammy and chancellor Rachel Reeves (pictured above) have met their European counterparts in the last couple of months. “So there is a clear effort on the British government’s part to appear constructive,” Jennifer said. “But they are very emphatic about the red lines.”
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What does the EU want?
A bit more clarity of purpose from the UK, for a start. In this analysis piece from October, the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung says that the question doing the rounds in Brussels is: “What does Starmer really want from the EU, apart from nice pictures with the important people in Brussels and an improvement in tone?”
If there are 100 civil servants assigned to the problem, their impact has not yet been felt. “The EU is still waiting for some sort of signal of how the UK would manage the trade-offs necessary for what it is seeking,” Jennifer said.
“It does want agreements on foreign policy and security, along with cooperation to counter irregular migration – although that’s mostly happening on a country-to-country basis at the moment. But the economic relationship is much more complicated, because making any changes means that you get tangled up in EU law.”
She gives the example of the UK’s desire to ease restrictions on touring artists in the EU – which sounds pretty trivial, but comes up against “cabotage” rules that restrict UK drivers’ ability to haul equipment across Europe. EU officials feel that if the UK wants to make progress on such thorny questions, it should show willingness to revive the youth mobility scheme that allowed EU citizens under 30 to live and work in the UK, and vice versa.
“That is an area where talks might hit the rocks,” Jennifer said. “It really irritates people in Brussels because they don’t see it as ‘free movement’ since it’s restricted by time and by age.”
In this analysis piece, Jennifer also notes a leaked internal EU document which says that a reset “is only credible” if EU fishing rights in British waters are maintained. Meanwhile, a court case where the European Commission is challenging restrictions on EU citizens’ family members to live in the UK is casting a shadow over the prospective talks. “It’s not insurmountable,” Jennifer said. “But the EU has said that it won’t move forward with new agreements until the existing ones are honoured.”
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How likely is it that progress will be made?
There is a genuine sense in Brussels that the UK is now a more reasonable negotiating partner than in the past – but they don’t typically date the change to Labour’s election victory, Jennifer said. “Most people put the turning point at the signing of the Windsor framework on arrangements in Northern Ireland under Rishi Sunak. The tone was felt to be more positive from that point.”
In general, officials in Brussels believe that “geopolitics is bringing the two sides together, especially since the invasion of Ukraine, and on the question of how to respond if Donald Trump reduces US funding. So there is an appetite for a better relationship.”
Starmer will join an EU leaders retreat in February: if there is progress on the low-hanging fruit of foreign policy and defence there, progress on the more difficult questions could follow. “There is less drama around them now, but these are still difficult technical questions,” Jennifer said. “So it’s really all still up in the air.”
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Does any of this amount to a ‘betrayal’ of Brexit?
“It’s really far-fetched,” Jennifer said. “The really big dividing lines on the single market and the customs union are still there, and agreements in particular areas don’t move the dial on that, even if they’re important in their own right.”
It’s also worth noting the relatively minor nature of the changes the UK is seeking. In this August analysis, Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe noted that even the veterinary agreement, perhaps the biggest single item on the UK’s agenda, covers a sector that is worth just 0.6% of the UK’s GDP.
Of course, it is possible that over the long term, lots of agreements in different areas bring the two sides into closer alignment. “In theory, the EU would be open to an application to rejoin at some point,” Jennier said. But the terms would be very different to the ones the UK left on, and the issue remains politically toxic in Britain. “Nobody thinks it’s remotely likely,” she added. “So, for the foreseeable future, the EU just isn’t engaging in the question.”
What else we’ve been reading
Constant bombardment by Israeli forces has left Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza, once a “densely populated, vibrant and busy” area, a “unrecognisable wasteland of rubble”. This piece uses eyewitness accounts, satellite imagery and video footage to chronicle the total destruction of the site over the last 14 months. Nimo
Being swarmed by cockroaches on I’m A Celebrity is a pretty trivial challenge when you consider what Tulisa has faced in the past: tabloid sting operations, a leaked sex tape and being a teenage carer for her mother. Zoe Williams’s interview tells a story that is “as much about the remarkable vindictiveness of the celebrity ecosystem as about one woman’s resilience and drive”. Archie
The London Overground’s rebrand has been met with a fairly muted reception. But if you did want to explore the history behind the revamp, you need not even hop on the train: Phoebe Taplin decided to do it on foot, walking six routes using stations on each line. Nimo
As recently as the 1990s, lesbian mothers would routinely lose their children in custody disputes with their fathers because of their sexuality. Sophie Wilkinson, who recently made a documentary about the issue for Radio 4, has a powerful piece on a scandal whose ripple effects are still being felt. Archie
“Our privacy was sold off to the highest bidder a very long time ago. Every move we make, every step we take, every potato we air fry, someone is watching us,” Arwa Mahdawi writes following the news that even our air fryers are being used as a tool to surveil us. Nimo
Sport
Football | Cameron Archer scored a fine goal for Southampton but Liverpool held on to their early advantage and won 2-1 to reach the Carabao Cup semi-finals. In the other quarter finals played last night, Newcastle beat Brentford 3-1 and Arsenal beat Crystal Palace 3-2.
Formula One | Sergio Pérez has lost his seat at Red Bull after a disappointing season. Pérez, who joined the team in 2021, came under increasing pressure as the Formula One campaign wore on, finishing 285 points behind his teammate, Max Verstappen.
Darts | Christian Kist earned himself a bumper payday by firing a stunning nine-dart finish at the PDC world championship – but went on to lose his match against Madars Razma. The Dutchman threw the perfect leg in the opening set of his first-round match to win £60,000.
The front pages
The Guardian’s lead story is “PM told to tighten rules on party donations amid fears over Musk”. “Prince Andrew frozen out of Royal Xmas lunch” is the Express’s main concern today, while the Financial Times has “Britain’s borrowing costs mount as ‘stagflation’ fears haunt gilt investors”. “Pensions protest grows for Starmer after ‘betrayal’ of Waspi women” – that’s the i. “ECHR lets heroin kingpin stay in UK” says the Telegraph, while the Times reports “UK soldiers poised to train troops in Ukraine”. “3 friends killed by laughing gas driver, 19” says the i. “I’ve got the old Kammy back!” – the Daily Mirror on “footy fave” Chris Kamara returning to TV after illness.
Today in Focus
Can a steel town survive if its furnaces are turned off?
Port Talbot in Wales is defined by its huge steelworks. But in January Tata Steel announced it was ending primary steelmaking there. George McDonagh charts a year that could change the town for ever
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Most of us do not want rats anywhere near us – particularly not ginormous ones. In Dar es Salaam, however, scientists cannot get enough of them. In a remarkable breakthrough for tuberculosis (TB) detection, Tanzanian health experts have pioneered a screening method using giant African pouched rats. The highly trained rodents can accurately identify in sputum samples TB that initial clinical tests may miss, with an 82% accuracy rate. Working with local clinics, the charity Apopo has screened more than 900,000 samples and detected more than 30,000 TB cases that may have otherwise been missed, averting at least 300,000 potential infections.
This approach is not only faster and more cost-effective than traditional testing, but has significantly contributed to Tanzania’s 40% reduction in TB incidence since 2015.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
