Expect a major shakeup to start free agency, as Sixers guard James Harden—once widely expected to return to Philadelphia—now plans to opt into the final year of his contract so the Sixers can trade him, per multiple reports. Harden has roughly $36.5 million left in the final year of his deal. He averaged 21.0 points and 10.7 assists per game for the Sixers last season. If moved, Harden, who will be 34 in August, will be playing for his fourth team since 2020.
Let’s run through some fake trades for the former MVP, and what could actually make sense for all parties.
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Harden in Hollywood
Clippers receive: James Harden
76ers receive: Norm Powell, Marcus Morris Sr.
The Clips are rumored to be in the running for Harden, and he would fulfill the team’s years-long quest to find a point guard/distributor for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. On paper, the fit would be sensible. Harden looked comfortable as a third option with Brooklyn, and playing with two perimeter scorers lessens what you’d need from him in the postseason, which seems important at this point in his career. The problem is, if Kawhi and PG aren’t healthy, can L.A. count on Harden to step up and carry the load?
This swap would also subtly help the Clips clean up their books. Harden will be a free agent next summer as he can’t sign an extension if traded. Let’s say the experiment blows up, with Leonard and George holding player options, L.A. could theoretically move on from all its stars next offseason. With a new arena set to open up, that seems unlikely. At the same time, considering the diminishing returns of the Kawhi-PG era so far, an all-or-nothing move makes sense on some level.
As for the Sixers, Powell is a plug-and-play 3-and-D option who can start next to Tyrese Maxey in the backcourt. Though Powell is signed through 2026, his contract is exceedingly reasonable for a role player. Morris would provide a decent frontcourt option as well, and his expiring deal wouldn’t clog the books.
This is the deal that would seem to make the most people happy.
Back to the Big Apple
Knicks receive: James Harden
76ers receive: RJ Barrett, Evan Fournier
Maybe Harden still has the place he lived in when he played for the Nets? Because otherwise, I don’t think the Knicks make sense as a destination. The fit with Jalen Brunson is clunky, and possibly adding another playoff underperformer next to Julius Randle may lead to riots outside of Madison Square Garden.
I’m also not sure why Philly would do this. Fournier is on an expiring deal. The Sixers would have to really love Barrett to do this, and I’m not sure his potential—whatever it is—is worth the gamble while Embiid is still in his prime.
New York doesn’t really have contracts to move otherwise. The Sixers don’t need Mitchell Robinson. I don’t see anyone taking on the Randle contract in the second-apron era. Fournier and Josh Hart also don’t seem like enough, even if Philly is essentially trying to dump Harden.
I see a Knicks move happening only if a third team gets involved.
The Two Jims
Heat receive: James Harden, Furkan Korkmaz
Sixers receive: Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson
The Heat are another team said to be monitoring the Harden sweepstakes. Similar to the Clippers, Miami makes this move because Harden is an upgrade over Lowry, and his expiring deal would greatly help the team clean up its salary sheet next summer if it falls short of a championship. I don’t see the Heat acquiring Harden unless they move on from one of their longer contracts, because Miami’s cap is in rough shape. Especially considering Miami’s reluctance to pay a big tax bill, Harden would really have to buy into #HeatCulture to make the short-term cost worth it for ownership.
On the other hand, this would be mostly a punt for Philly. It’s a worse version of the Clippers deal. Robinson has proven he can be a postseason impact player, and he’d actually be a great fit next to Embiid, but wouldn’t the Sixers want more back? Lowry is probably best served as a backup at this point, though he could start next to Maxey. His expiring deal would be of value to Philly. Enough to take a step back as a contender, however? I’m skeptical.
