Three early January national polls have Labor sliding to between 52–53% two party preferred against the Coalition, down from around 55% to Labor before Anika Wells’ expenses scandal and Bondi. These polls are the worst for Labor since they unexpectedly won the May 2025 federal election in a landslide.
The three polls disagree on One Nation and the Coalition’s vote. In Morgan, the Coalition is actually ahead of Labor on primary votes by 30.5–30, with One Nation at 15%. In Fox & Hedgehog, Labor has 29% of the primary vote, the Coalition 25% and One Nation 21%. And in DemosAU, Labor has 29% with the Coalition and One Nation tied at 23% each.
Labor’s slide in the polls began with the expenses scandal and appears to have been worsened by fallout from Bondi. But just because Labor has lost support doesn’t mean they will keep losing it.
