Some of us like to think we know exactly why so many MPs are to stand down at the next election – if they’re Conservatives, that is. Better to quit than to be thrown out! Better to leave than to die a slow death in opposition! But pusillanimity and defeatism take us only so far. For one thing, not all of these people are in marginal seats; some have big majorities. For another, there’s the fact that whatever the public may believe about the lucrative roles former MPs tend to bag for themselves on the outside, not everyone is as lucky as George “nine jobs” Osborne. In 2023, the House of Commons Administration Committee published a report that looked at the plight of MPs who lose or give up their seats. As its title, Smoothing the cliff edge, implies, it is full of tales of woe. Here are phones that never ring; pastoral care that never arrives; a feeling that these institutionalised – even stigmatised – men and women cannot find a place out in the real world. For those with even the smallest chance of winning again, it really might be better to stay on and fight.
Fighting, however, is the last thing they’re going to do – or so it would seem. Ninety-eight MPs have so far announced their intention of standing down, the majority Conservative (the latest is the former prime minister, Theresa May; the figure is likely to rise in the coming weeks). This isn’t the tidal wave it might appear: in 2010, 150 MPs stood down, mainly from the Labour party, which had been in power since 1997; an average of 87 MPs stood down in elections between 1979 and 2010. But in 2024, there is a notable difference. Many of those who are off are young: very young, in some cases. William Wragg, who has been the Conservative MP for Hazel Grove in Greater Manchester since 2015, is 36; his party colleague Dehenna Davison, the MP for Bishop Auckland since 2019, is 30; Mhairi Black, the deputy leader of the SNP in the House of Commons and the MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire South, is still only 29. Those who are stepping aside after several decades in parliament, such as Harriet Harman (the MP for Camberwell and Peckham since 1982), may represent the end of an era in more ways than one. Political careers are growing ever shorter, and while this might have some virtues, mostly it doesn’t seem to augur well in terms of parliament retaining talent, energy and continuity.
