This housing data is the 'most critical economic variable' for predicting recessions, and it's now at the lowest level since pandemic shutdowns

(Credit: Justin Sullivan—Getty Images)

The housing market is long been seen as an early warning sign for recessions, and one data point in particular has caught the attention of Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In social media posts on Sunday, he noted that Moody’s own leading economic indicator that uses machine learning has estimated the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are now at 48%.