It happens every year. You can bank on one or two teams turning around from a losing record one season to the playoffs the next. Since the wild-card era began, the playoffs have included 64 such turnaround teams in 28 years, or an average of 2.3 surprise teams per year. That includes at least one turnaround team in 27 of the 28 years, including 17 in a row.
This year we have four surprise teams holding a playoff spot as the second half begins: the Rangers, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Reds. A fifth surprise team, the Twins, are only a half game out of another spot. We have seen four surprise teams in the playoff field six times, but never five of them.
Can they hold on? Here is a look at the four surprise teams, ranked by their percentage chance of holding on, as calculated by Baseball Reference.
