With training camps in full swing and teams starting to take the field for their preseason openers, it can only mean that we’re drawing ever closer to Week 1, and the start of another NFL season. Along with that, of course, comes the beginning of another year of fantasy football. While some leagues have already held their drafts, many more will do so between now and Sept. 7 when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions in the Kickoff Game.
With that in mind, here’s a look at five players to keep an eye on as they move down draft boards.
5
QB Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Now that Purdy (elbow) is back at practice, he’s been running with the first-team offense. That was to be expected after the Iowa State alum went 7-1 as a starter with his lone setback coming in the NFC Championship Game in which his elbow was injured. For all his success, however, Purdy didn’t put up huge numbers. Excluding the conference title game, Purdy averaged 235 yards, 2 TDs, and 0.3 INTs per game, and he ran for just 35 yards combined. There’s a lot of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (now with the Las Vegas Raiders) in Purdy’s game, which is bad news for fantasy owners.
Drafters also are warming to the idea that there’s no real investment in Purdy, who was the final overall pick in last year’s draft, and if he struggles, head coach Kyle Shanahan would have no qualms in making a move to QBs Trey Lance or Sam Darnold. Quarterbacks have had trouble staying healthy with the 49ers under Shanahan as well, with QB1 being lost to injury in five of his six seasons in charge. That might simply be bad luck, but it’s a trend to be aware of nonetheless.
4
RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Dobbins looked like an ascending force in 2020, rushing for 805 yards and nine TDs on just 134 carries as a rookie. His trajectory changed the following August when he suffered a torn ACL that cost him all of 2021. He returned to the field in Week 3 last year but struggled to get anything going and was shut down after four weeks to undergo a clean-up procedure on his knee. Dobbins was activated in time to play the final four games of 2022, and he looked more like his old self, running 57 times for 397 yards.
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Whatever momentum that generated has dissipated. Dobbins has spent all of training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. He’s reportedly unhappy with his contract and is followed on the depth chart by a trio of capable options in RBs Gus Edwards, Melvin Gordon, and Justice Hill. Add to that a retooled receiving corps, which suggests a more balanced offense under new OC Todd Monken, and it’s easy to see why Dobbins’ outlook has cooled considerably.
3
RB Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints
Rookie running backs are always a popular target for fantasy owners, especially those selected in the first three rounds when players are typically expected to contribute early on. Such was the case with Miller, who was chosen 71st overall. At the time, it made some sense as the team didn’t know how long running back Alvin Kamara would be suspended, and they needed another capable option to pair with free-agent signee RB Jamaal Williams.
Fast-forward to today, however, and the need isn’t as great. Kamara’s suspension is for only three games, and when he’s available the expectation is that the Saints will use him and Williams like previous New Orleans teams mixed in RB Mark Ingram. It also doesn’t speak highly of Miller’s short-term value that the club tried to sign free-agent RB Kareem Hunt (and might still). At this point, Miller looks more like a factor for 2024.
2
WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The offseason retirement of Tom Brady signaled a reboot for the Buccaneers, and transitioning from one of the greatest ever to the likes of QBs Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask is going to reverberate up and down the roster. It has clearly affected the way fantasy owners view Evans, who averaged 74 receptions, 1,055 yards, and 11 TDs in three seasons working with TB12. While it makes sense to expect the veteran to take a step back statistically, his history suggests that won’t happen.
In nine NFL seasons, Evans has topped 1,000 yards every year — that includes a season in which QBs Mike Glennon and Josh McCown were the starters — and at age 29, he should still have tread left. He has great size, can outfight defensive backs for 50/50 balls, and has never missed more than three games in a season. He’s fallen down draft boards, though, and could represent good value if plucked as your No. 3 receiver.
1
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Engram is an interesting case. For five years with the New York Giants, the former first-round pick was mostly viewed as a disappointment. After posting an encouraging 64-722-6 line as a rookie, Engram averaged 50 catches for 527 yards and 3.3 touchdowns per year. He encountered a lukewarm market in free agency before the 2022 season and settled on a one-year deal with the Jags where he caught 73 passes for 766 yards and four TDs. That netted him the franchise tag before eventually hammering out a three-year contract.
While that temporarily moved Engram up in drafts, fantasy owners seem to be souring on his prospects for 2023, which is understandable. His career-best effort didn’t really move the needle, and the return of WR Calvin Ridley likely pushes the tight end down the pecking order with WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones both outperforming Engram last year. There isn’t a ton of upside with the veteran, who could be hard pressed to even match his numbers from 2022.
