Welcome to the final sprint of the 2026 midterm elections. The Senate will have its final week of session this week before it breaks. The House already left and canceled its final two weeks of votes in September.
Every midterm has a certain rhythm. Usually, the president’s party loses at least one chamber of Congress. Some governorships and state legislatures flip. The war in Iran and the subsequent cost of living crisis sent President Donald Trump’s approval rating nosediving. He is bleeding support among not just the Hispanic voters and young people who broke for him in 2024, but also white voters without college degrees.
This has led to Democrats being competitive in places where they otherwise wouldn’t — or flat-out running away with races. In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper led some polls by as much as double digits, and in Texas, Trump’s preferred candidate for Senate, Ken Paxton, is neck-and-neck with Democrat James Talarico.
But every once in a while, a president can be so unpopular that some surprise seats can flip. In 2010, Republican Scott Brown won a special election in Massachusetts to win the late Ted Kennedy’s old seat. In 2018, Democrats flipped a Senate seat in Arizona and also flipped a House seat in Oklahoma’s fifth district.
Here are some races that might leave jaws dropped by election night.
Florida governor’s race
The Sunshine State has become the locus of the MAGA movement. Trump decamped from New York to Mar-a-Lago in his first presidency to make it is his primary residence. His endorsement of Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2018 meant the state largely stayed open and it earned the reputation as the “free state of Florida.” Trump even made significant gains with the state’s Latino population.
But that’s changing now.
The cost of living has skyrocketed in Florida and Trump’s immigration policies even have normally more conservative Cuban-American Republicans warning Trump that he’s gone too far. Nowhere is this clearer than in the governor’s race.
Trump endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds to be the Republican nominee, but he suffered a bruising and frankly racist primary race. Now, Donalds has scrubbed many of the mentions of Trump from his website in a bid to pick up votes.
Donalds has also faced pushback for his vocal support for data centers, which many voters in both parties dislike. Donalds is running against former Rep. David Jolly, who switched parties and is now running as a Democrat.
Florida is still an uphill climb for Democrats given the inward migration of conservative voters to the state. But if Donalds underperforms or outright loses parts of North Florida, expect a long night. If Jolly somehow wins, expect a painful night for Republicans.
Kentucky’s 6th district
On the surface, this should be easy pickings for Republicans.
Rep. Andy Barr is vacating Kentucky’s 6th and will almost certainly win Sen. Mitch McConnell’s seat. The district voted for Trump by 15 points in 2024. It’s been fools gold for Democrats for a while. Democrat Amy McGrath tried and failed to beat Barr in 2018, but crashed and burned.
But even in this district, Trump is proving unpopular.
NBC News reported that the Republican nominee Ralph Alvarado has removed references to Trump on his campaign website. Zach Dembo is putting up a strong performance. To give an example of how optimistic Democrats are about the 6th, AdImpact showed that in 2024, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent zero dollars in the general election there.
Now the DCCC has reserved $683,000 in ad spending there. Again, this is a lift for Democrats. But if they somehow flip this, they will have an absolute tsunami of a night. If Republicans hold it, the worst-case scenario will be avoided.
Oregon’s governor’s race
Most races will swing to the left. But there’s one where Democrats might in actual trouble.
In Oregon, Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek narrowly beat Republican Christine Drazan by 3.4 points, with an independent siphoning off about 8.6 percent of the vote. This time, Kotek and Drazan are set for a rematch.
A recent poll by DHM Research for a pro-business group shows that 59 percent of voters disapprove of Kotek, according to Oregon Public Radio. The poll also showed that Drazan has a two-point lead against Kotek.
The Cook Political Report also recently changed its rating for the race from “Likely Democratic” to “Lean Democratic.” The political winds and anti-Trump sentiment might just be enough to keep Kotek in office.
But if voter dissatisfaction is big enough, a small headwind could knock Democrats in Oregon down a notch.
Kansas’ Senate Race
It’s almost hard to quantify how big of a deal a Democratic flip could be in Kansas.
The last Democrat to win a Senate race in Kansas was George McGill in 1930 in a special election, who would win a full term before losing in 1938. A year later, The Wizard of Oz premiered.
Kansas has a Democratic governor in term-limited Laura Kelly. But this time, there might be a legitimate chance at the Senate seat changing hands.
Sen. Roger Marshall is running in his first re-election campaign against Adam Hamilton, a minister at the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection. Marshall is one of the most outspoken supporters of Trump. But even in 2020, when he won his first Senate term by double digits, he underperformed Trump.
Now, in the heart of farm country, he might reap the harvest of Trump’s most unpopular policies. Trump’s tariffs took a significant toll on the state’s farmers. On Monday, China announced it would reduce tariffs for a host of products, but kept soybeans off the list. Trump’s decision to import 300,000 metric tons of beef to deal with the increasing cost of hamburger is another kick in the shins for one of the biggest states for cattle.
Then there is the war in Iran, which has caused the price of diesel to skyrocket.
Just last week, Marshall voted against a War Powers Act resolution to rein in the war in Iran. This all might be why an Emerson College poll showed Hamilton with a small lead, albeit within the margin of error. \
Kansas is still Kansas with its rock-ribbed Republican tradition. But a Hamilton victory would be as much of a whirlwind as the tornado that swept Dorothy to Oz.
Colorado’s 4th District
In 2022, Rep. Lauren Boebert nearly got washed out of Congress in her first term. That near-death experience led to her moving to run in the 4th district.
Boebert came to Washington as one of Trump’s biggest supporters. But since then, she’s crossed him by signing the discharge petition to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein. She also campaigned for Rep. Thomas Massie during Massie’s primary despite Trump opposing the cantankerous Kentuckian.
Boebert has also continued to face negative headlines about her son’s arrest. And in 2024, despite Trump winning the 4th district, Boebert underperformed Trump by 9.2 percentage points according to Split Ticket.
But her biggest obstacle may not have anything to do with her at all. Victor Marx, a right-wing candidate for governor, trails Attorney General Phil Weiser. Marx famously refused to say how many people he’s killed.
Boebert only won her seat by about 12 points, meaning Democrat Eileen Laubacher needs to only slightly perform the generic congressional ballot to stun everyone.
Bonus round: South Carolina
Perhaps the biggest surprise this year came when veteran Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina unexpectedly died in July.
That set off a flurry of events that led to Trump calling on the governor of South Carolina to appoint his sister Darline to fill out his term. Trump then said he wanted her to run for the Republican primary for a full term as South Carolina’s Senator. Trump poured in resources to help her beat Rep. Ralph Norman.
But polling shows the younger Graham with only a slight lead against Democratic candidate Annie Andrews. Andrews, a pediatrician who ran against Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) in 2022, ran a fairly standard liberal campaign but is now attempting to reach out to Republicans who voted for the elder Graham.
It’s unclear if it will work. But given the national environment and the dissatisfaction with Darline Graham’s campaign so far, it could be an upset.
