Among the resources I tap into before e-filing my annual MVP ballot are those charged with scheming to stop the contenders. With only so many games you can watch, stats you can pore over and advanced analytics you can dig up, I find it useful to crowdsource opinions from professionals. So, with a week or so remaining in the regular season, I fire off text messages to a group of assistant coaches, video coordinators and scouts I frequently communicate with. Of the 23 responses I got this year, no player received double-digit endorsements.
This year’s MVP vote is expected to be the closest in NBA history. ESPN’s most recent straw poll had Joel Embiid—the third player to lead three iterations of the poll of likely voters—leading Nikola Jokić by two points, with Giannis Antetokounmpo still within shouting distance. Competitive, two-man MVP races are not uncommon. Magic Johnson and Charles Barkley were separated by 22 points in 1989–90. Karl Malone beat Michael Jordan by just 29 points in ’96–97.
This kind of three-man race, though, is a lot rarer. But deserved.
Jokić, the two-time defending MVP, is having another strong statistical season. He’s miles ahead of the field in net plus/minus—the closest competition is his Nuggets teammate Aaron Gordon—and wins above replacement while ranking first in win shares, RAPTOR, VORP and virtually every other advanced analytic. Embiid is a dominant two-way player who led the NBA in scoring for the second year in a row. Antetokounmpo is similarly overwhelming on both ends and posted offensive numbers the league hasn’t seen in decades.
Down the stretch, all three made statements. Antetokounmpo outplayed Embiid in a win over the Sixers on April 2. “We certainly feel like Giannis is the MVP,” Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer said postgame. Embiid scored 52 in a win over Boston a few days later. “The MVP race is over,” Doc Rivers declared after that one. Jokić’s Nuggets closed the season with back-to-back wins over the Bucks (with Giannis) and Sixers (regrettably without Embiid).
There really is no wrong choice.
Mine, though, was Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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The statistical case for Antetokounmpo is an easy one. Giannis averaged 31.1 points this season, a couple behind Embiid and well ahead of Jokić. He pulled down 11.8 rebounds, handed out 5.3 assists and shot 55.3% from the floor. There are only three members of the 30-plus point, 10-plus rebound, five-plus assist and 50%-plus from the floor club: Antetokounmpo, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Wilt Chamberlain. Bump the shooting percentage up to 55%, and it’s just Giannis and Kareem. He’s a freight train on the open floor and unstoppable with single coverage on drives to the basket. His three-point shooting (27.5%) remains a glaring weakness, but to Antetokounmpo’s credit he attempted fewer this year (171) than he had in any of the previous four. His 63 games was a relatively low number, but neither Jokić (69) nor Embiid (66) zoomed past him.
Defensively, he’s a monster. The Bucks ranked in the top four in defensive rating, opponent field goal percentage and opponent effective field goal percentage this season. In fairness, Brook Lopez, a Defensive Player of the Year front-runner, and Jrue Holiday, who should find his way onto an All-Defensive Team, have plenty to do with that. But Giannis’s physicality in the paint and versatility on the wings tie it all together.
If you’re looking for what separated Antetokounmpo, Embiid and Jokić, there isn’t much. Jokić, who finished third on my ballot, didn’t score as much as he did his previous two seasons—a healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. had a lot to do with that—and while he isn’t nearly as bad defensively as social media suggests, he’s light-years behind Antetokounmpo and Embiid in that category. Denver finished atop the Western Conference standings but was five games behind Milwaukee for the league’s best mark.
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The Embiid/Giannis choice was tougher. Embiid got my first-place vote last season, and he was even better in this one. His scoring numbers were staggering. His efficiency (54.8%) was a career best. Opponents didn’t even try to score in the paint when Embiid was patrolling it. His plus/minus in crunch time minutes, per NBA.com, led the league. He’s the clear sentimental favorite, having finished behind Jokić the past two seasons. If he wins, he’s earned it.
Still—Giannis. Winning is a variable for me. It’s why Embiid, on the 51-win, Ben Simmons–less Sixers edged Jokić, who won 48-games without Murray, for me last season. The Bucks won an NBA-best 58 games, and they did it with Khris Middleton playing in just 33. They pulled off a 16-game winning streak and closed the season on a 29–7 run. There are no bad choices here. Giannis is mine.
