A POLL NEW WORLD
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will probably lose his blue-ribbon seat to teal independent Monique Ryan, according to a poll from The Australian ($). The poll included 19,000 voters across all 151 lower house seats — claiming to be the “most comprehensive” poll ever conducted in Australia. The poll also found fellow Victorian Liberal Tim Wilson would probably lose in Goldstein — but that the Coalition would hang on to Wentworth, North Sydney, and McKellar. Former Liberal turned United Australia Party MP Craig Kelly will probably lose his seat too, the YouGov poll found. What would Frydenberg do next if he did lose the seat once held by Robert Menzies? Probably become Victoria’s next premier, Crikey reckons — he could be elected as the state party’s leader from outside Parliament, like then-lord mayor Campbell Newman was in Queensland (he went on to beat Anna Bligh and become premier).
Frydenberg is pretty popular, even if his chances in Kooyong are diminishing next to the undeniable sparkle of Ryan. Even Labor Leader Anthony Albanese doesn’t seem to mind him — The Australian ($) says Albo called yesterday as the treasurer was handing out leaflets, and the pair had a jovial conversation of jokes and ribbing about the size of Frydenberg’s billboards (very big, for the record, but I’m heroically sidestepping the Shrek euphemism quip here). Speaking of Albo, he backed lifting the minimum wage by at least 5.1% yesterday (in line with the rate of inflation), Guardian Australia reports. It’s less than the Australian Council of Trade Unions, which wants a 5.5% increase, but more than the Australian Industry Group (it’s asking Fair Work for a 2.5% increase), and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (which asked for a 3% rise). The minimum wage is $20.33, so Albo is suggesting just over a dollar more.
RAIN AND SUFFERING
More than 100mm of rain fell in Townsville, in Queensland’s north in one hour last night, while flash flooding saw the Flinders and Landsborough highways partially close, The Courier-Mail ($) reports. At 10.30pm communities between Tully and Proserpine received a severe weather warning with dangerous and “life threatening” flash flooding on the cards — indeed social media posts showed cars were almost completely engulfed by floodwaters at Cannon Park. Other places hit by heavy rain yesterday include Mourilyan near Innisfail (113mm in an hour) and Hughenden (46mm). A man was rescued in Mount Isa’s floodwaters, The New Daily reports — he has been treated for hypothermia, the paper ($) adds.
It comes as a former Queensland governor has released his findings into the February flood disaster, recommending a revamp of planning laws and incentives for builders and body corporates to move electricity systems from the basements, The Brisbane Times reports. Increasingly intense and dangerous rainfall is one of the many outcomes of climate inaction, the IPCC report found. Meanwhile, 90% of reefs surveyed in the Great Barrier Reef have been bleached this year, according to a report by government scientists. Guardian Australia says it was “quietly published” after weeks of delay, and shows hotter-than-normal water temps caused the mass bleaching event — the reef’s sixth on record (four have happened in the last six years).
*DROPS MIKE*
The NT’s Chief Minister Michael Gunner has called time on his leadership of the Top End after Tuesday’s budget was handed down, saying he didn’t want a “second near-death experience”, the NT News reports. Gunner, 46, had a heart attack in January 2020 as ABC reports and yesterday said he felt like he can’t keep giving 100% every day — he has a newborn and a toddler, and wants to spend time with them instead. Gunner, who was leader for five and a half years, is not stepping down as the member for Fannie Bay, however. The Country Liberal opposition leader slammed Gunner for the shock decision, accusing the NT’s Labor government of handing down a “budget of quitters”.
Speaking of irate opposition leaders, WA’s Mia Davies has accused premier Mark McGowan of being drunk on pandemic power — McGowan wants to extend the state of emergency powers out west until January next year, WA Today reports. WA declared a state of emergency in March 2020, giving the government powers to enforce borders, restrictions, and mandates including face masks for close contacts, seven day isolation for cases, restricted movement into Indigenous communities, rules for cruise ships, and face masks in hospitals, aged care, and disability, The New Daily explains. But the ever-popular McGowan has the majority in both houses, and declaring the bill urgent will mean it can be rushed through in one day rather than be contemplated like regular proposed legislation. Davies says it’s an “unbelievable use of power” and “very arrogant”.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE
A Canadian politician attended Parliament remotely while on the dunny. Liberal party member Shafqat Ali logged onto the hybrid session via video conferencing as normal, but the Conservatives (the Liberals are the progressives in Canada) soon grew rather suspicious of Ali’s backdrop — it kind of looked like the toilet stalls of Parliament, several politicians noted. So the Conservative House leader did a spot of sleuthing in the building’s West Block, and concluded the stonework, door hinges and coat hook proved it — the MP was on the loo while in Parliament. Ali, shamefaced, apologised for the “unfortunate event”, saying it was an embarrassing lapse in judgement and wouldn’t happen again.
Incredibly, it’s not the first time the Liberals have been caught in a compromised position while in the so-called cathedral of Canadian democracy. Last year then-MP Will Amos was caught starkers on camera during a session of Parliament as he changed from his running clothes to his work clothes, not realising his camera was enabled. Fellow politician Claude DeBellefeuille said, although “we have seen that the member is in great physical shape,” policymakers should be conscious of the status of their cameras while in parliamentary sessions. Unfortunately, after Amos was later captured peeing in a mug on an internal Commons feed, his career in the elected public service was dead and buried — and he resigned.
Wishing you a much more dignified morning ahead, folks.
SAY WHAT?
One Nation will protect your right to choose your diet, whether it’s meat, veggies or any combination. We oppose the Food Summit’s recommendations of restricting the world to just one bite of red meat per day. We will not “shut up and eat the bugs”.
Malcolm Roberts
The Greens will make Malcolm shut up and eat the bugs.
Nick McKim
The Greens senator from Tassie couldn’t help but take the piss out of the One Nation politician, with McKim replying to Roberts’ rather bizarre tweet with a tongue-in-cheek assurance that The Greens will, if elected, make him eat bugs.
CRIKEY RECAP
Why aren’t Morrison’s campaign tricks working?
“But the Coalition’s campaign tactics have also been dramatically less successful. The Morrison campaign, carefully prepared in advance with help from right-wing strategist and Lynton Crosby protégé Isaac Levido, has incorporated successful elements from other right-wing campaigns, drawing from the Republicans in the US and from Boris Johnson in the UK (Levido was a key Tory strategist in 2019), as well as from Morrison’s own ‘miracle’ 2019 win …
“But: Demonisation of opponents has been dramatically less successful, mainly because Labor has learnt its lesson — or re-learnt John Hewson’s lesson — and given Morrison far less material to work with. Labor has instead taken a lesson from Kevin Rudd’s 2007 campaign and narrowed its differences to a few key areas — climate change, integrity, cost of living, housing.”
‘Yes ma’m.’ Mackellar candidates meek as kittens as Geraldine Doogue sets the rules
“There were a few flashpoints over the need for a federal ICAC and accusations of dubious campaign funding which elicited applause or incredulous laughs but overall it was a relaxed, dignified affair. You could almost hear the sigh of relief from the candidates when they climbed off their uncomfortable perches after almost two hours.
“Not every ‘town hall’ is able to attract a moderator the calibre of Doogue. So how did the host of ABC RN’s Saturday Extra ‘with a focus on international affairs and business’ broadcasting to a national audience find her way to a small cinema in Avalon discussing the state the local roads and hospitals in the fascinating campaign for Mackellar? The answer lies with Pulitzer-prize winning, former investigative journalist for The New York Times and The New Yorker Ray Bonner.”
‘The Greems’: how the Greens harnessed online chaos to power a digital campaign
“Late last year the official Facebook page of Australian Greens Leader Adam Bandt turned up in a group called ‘Auspol shitposting’. The Facebook group comprising 3000 very online Australians is dedicated to discussing Australian politics (‘auspol’) through the creation and sharing of ironically low-quality memes and posts (‘shitposting’).
“It’s not a type of online space where politicians usually hang out — inauthentic, cringe-making social media posts from politicians are often the subject of lampooning by group members — which is why Bandt’s arrival attracted some attention in the group. Members waited for him to post something, posting memes about his silent presence. (Unbeknown to them, Bandt’s participation was an accident. A Greens staffer had accidentally joined with the official account rather than their own.) Then the Bandt account finally spoke.”
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Sri Lanka issues ‘shoot-on-sight’ order to quell unrest (Al Jazeera)
[US] house panel to hold public hearing on unexplained aerial sightings (The New York Times)
IAEA’s Grossi ‘concerned’ over Iran’s lack of cooperation (Al Jazeera)
Elon Musk says he would reverse Twitter’s ban on Donald Trump (The Wall Street Journal) ($)
[US] gas prices jump to fresh record highs (CNN)
Marcos win prompts protests in the Philippines (The New York Times)
Honduran ex-leader pleads not guilty on US charges (BBC)
Netflix with ads reportedly could come by the end of the year (CNN)
[NZ] government tipped to bring forward full border reopening from October to July (NZ Herald)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Pork-barrelling or corruption? Voters should be the judge — Janet Albrechtsen (The Australian) ($): “There are the inevitable promises of new hospitals for some communities, highway upgrades for others, and new manufacturing facilities for yet others. Add in promises by the ALP of a cut of $12.50, and $10 by the Coalition, for scripts for Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme-listed medicines. Don’t forget the fuel rebate of 22c a litre and $250 cheques offered by the government pre-election with bipartisan support. And the $10 million lifeline offered by the Morrison government to regional newspapers. And Labor’s financial incentives to attract high-achieving students into teaching degrees. And on it goes.
“We seem to accept that offering budget-shattering levels of financial giveaways to particular groups in return for their vote is just fine. But watch out if a minister procures a donation to a tennis club in their electorate without an election in the offing. This is potentially corrupt pork-barrelling. The moral seems to be if you sling billions to an identified group in return for their vote that is just politics, whereas smaller and less direct bribes to your constituents can be corrupt. Que? It gets weirder. Brian Harradine made a career out of extracting money for Tasmania in return for his Senate vote. And good on him. Andrew Wilkie openly bragged to The Australian last month that he would use his power in a hung Parliament to negotiate on every piece of legislation and extract ‘some largesse’ for his seat and state in return for his vote.”
If you think Republicans will stop at overturning Roe, you aren’t paying attention — Jamelle Bouie (The New York Times): “[Defenders of Justice Samuel] Alito’s incomplete and distorted history aside, what we see when we look at the logic of his draft ruling is an argument that could sweep more than just abortion rights out of the circle of constitutional protection. Neither the right to same-sex marriage nor the right to sexual autonomy (Lawrence v Texas) can be said to be ‘deeply rooted in this nation’s history and tradition’. Nor for that matter can you say the same of the right to privacy (Griswold v. Connecticut) or racial integration (Brown v. Board of Education). Indeed, under the logic of Alito’s opinion, unless you can prove that some aspect of your freedom was recognized in the deep reaches of American history, it is subject to state coercion …
“Which brings us to the logic of the political movement that brought us to this point. Those of us outside the conservative movement and the religious right tend to think of them in terms of what they’re against, but it is helpful here to think in terms of what they want. Judging from their priorities, as well as their leaders and intellectuals, these movements want a hierarchical society of traditional morality and patriarchal family structure, where male-led households are disciplined by an unrestrained free market.”
HOLD THE FRONT PAGE
WHAT’S ON TODAY
Online
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Independent MPs Helen Haines and Zali Steggall will discuss parliamentary reform for better accountability in a webinar hosted by The Australia Institute.
Eora Nation Country (also known as Sydney)
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US National Cyber Director Chris Inglis will speak about the role of cyber in US strategy in a speech at the Lowy Institute.
Ngunnawal Country (also known as Canberra)
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Deputy Prime Minister and Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce will give a federal election address to the National Press Club.
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Former prime minister Kevin Rudd will discuss his new book The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping’s China with former foreign minister Julie Bishop at Manning Clark Hall auditorium.
Yuggera Country (also known as Brisbane)
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Journalist Tom Tilley will discuss his new book, Speaking in Tongues. You can also catch this one online.
