The fighting goes on in Ukraine, and despite huge losses on both sides, all seems stuck in bloody impasse. Against the odds, Ukrainian forces are mounting a counter-attack on Kherson, the first city taken by the Russians.
Russian forces have responded with a comprehensive bombardment of Black Sea ports — yet still claim to want a deal to let Ukrainian cereals, and those of Russia, perhaps, be shipped out.
It is difficult to interpret what underlies all the killing and bombing, because there is so much that we cannot see, either by accident or design. Above and behind the shelling, sniping, rocket artillery shots and cruise missile strikes, there is a huge, dark war. Above the mayhem and massacre, torture and hostage-taking and killing, there are signs that this may be the first major digital war of our times.
What is happening in cyberspace, and the effects of electronic warfare, jamming, interference and disruption of communication and information, could determine the outcome of the war. Electronic warfare has been standard Russian military doctrine and practice for decades. Specialist units in this type of attack have been deployed in the wars in Chechnya, Georgia in 2008, in Syria and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020. Cyber operations have been mounted continuously, notoriously in the US elections of 2016, against Ukraine and lately in Lithuania and Estonia.
Russian brute force alone hasn’t totally prevailed in Ukraine. The Ukrainians, no doubt with a bit of help from Western friends, have been adroit. Commanders across the country are being silent about much of their cyber and electronic tactics.
In part, this is informed by a clannish loyalty among the fighting groups — the historical memory of Ukraine, as classics such as Gogol’s Taras Bulba and Bulgakov’s The White Guard show — does not encourage too much faith in the state as an institution. It’s a Ukrainian form of omertá, the Mafia code of silence. “It is a brilliant form of op sec, operational security — absolutely watertight”, a British officer comments.
The fortunes of the six-month war are now finely balanced. Both sides have taken terrible losses — the Russians up to 20,000 dead and 60,000 wounded. This is more than half the number of the invasion force of last February. The losses for Ukraine have been of the same order, at least 20,000 dead from its fighting force, many injured and more than 11 million displaced.
Despite massive artillery fire, the Russian forces are making slow progress to seize the whole of Donbas, a target they’re unlikely to make for weeks — and despite Ukrainian forces being badly mauled retreating from Severodonetsk.
Ukrainian air defences continue to down Russian aircraft and cruise missiles. The precision targeting of the HIMARS and MLRS rocket artillery from the US, Britain and other allies is pulverising Russian ammunition and fuel dumps.
The Russian command looks very much like it wants to shut down the fighting in short order by the end of the summer. New forces are being raised at a scramble from across Russia, with a new drive to get units from non-Russian minorities, including the Kuban and Don Cossacks. Altogether it is estimated by Nato that Russia now has about 250,000 personnel committed to Ukraine, and they need to be replenished by at least half as many again if they are to hang on.
This is where the dark war comes in. By electronic means, surveillance satellites, drone targeting systems, the movements of the Russian forces and their replacements can be tracked and pinned down. They have similar assets but they don’t seem to be giving them much advantage, often the reverse.
Modern ground combat based on the close, depth and rear battle space is being transformed. In the new network warfare, and the concept of the digital battle, it is all one space, according to new American doctrine. The Ukrainians have proved themselves to be adroit at adapting to the new reality.
This week Sergei Lavrov underlined that Russia’s main aim was regime change in Kyiv, the erasure of independent Ukraine. If Ukraine survives battered but free, it wins. If Russia loses Ukraine to Europe — here the dark war may prove decisive — Moscow loses, full stop. Which will be very bad for Putin and the Russian people — and the fallout will affect us all.
