Some things happen more quickly than expected—like laundry piling up, finishing a good calzone, or seeing the effects of new technology seep into our personal and professional lives. The latter might be the most anxiety-producing; it seems that the age of the generative A.I. workforce is upon us, as investors pour billions into new tools that can have unprecedented consequences beyond simply being glitchy at times. Taking a cue from almost any sci-fi book or movie, many workers fear that A.I. will take over their jobs. Some experts warn of a “nightmarish scenario” related to A.I., while others are more optimistic as they attempt to cull fearmongering.
The extent of A.I.'s impact, for better or for worse, really might just depend on what industry you’re in. It's already impacted some sectors and roles—IBM’s CEO announced plans to cut jobs that A.I. can do, and debates around its implementation have already stoked historical events such as the joint WGA and SAG-AFTRA strike. Yet A.I. is also set to create some new jobs which could give other industries something to gain.
A new McKinsey report pinpoints the sectors that will likely grow and shrink in the coming decade thanks to A.I. “The future of work is already here, and it’s moving fast,” the researchers write. It’s not necessarily a fair race, though.
The consulting company predicts that A.I. will alter how we work, creating a shift as people move from harder-hit industries to industries experiencing more growth, estimating that 12 million occupational transitions will occur by 2030. Here are the sectors most likely weather a robot takeover—and those that won't.
Customer-facing positions and low-income roles will lose out
Customer-facing positions such as e-commerce and office admin roles are on A.I.'s chopping block, McKinsey predicts. A decrease in food and customer service jobs as well as office support and production work will lead to 10 million of the 12 million occupational shifts set to occur by 2030, it estimates.
These sectors already struggled with retention and hiring during the past couple of years; during the Great Resignation, many workers in low-paying jobs quit for better wages. More than half of the 8 million-plus occupational shifts that already occurred from 2019 to 2022 were from workers in these fields. The pandemic didn’t truly shake up the workforce as much as it sped up the conveyor belt to what might have already been coming. These downward trends aren’t just a blip but a sign of what’s to come in the ensuing decades thanks to A.I., McKinsey forecasts.
Clerk roles will decrease in demand by 1.6 million jobs, administrative assistants by 710,000 jobs, retail workers by 830,000 jobs, and cashiers by 630,000 jobs. These jobs typically involve tasks centered around efficiency or repetitive processes involving data processing and collection, all of which are tasks that A.I. can handle, at least for now.
This falls in line with predictions from Joseph Fuller, a professor of management at Harvard Business School, who previously told Fortune that routine contact lawyers or people in general with more route will be most affected by A.I.'s ascent. “I wouldn’t want to be someone who does the reading or summarization of business books to send out 20-page summaries, because A.I. is really good at summarization already,” Fuller told Fortune.
Some of these customer-facing roles are also low-paying. Those who earn $38,200 or less a year are 10 to 14 times more predisposed to have to change jobs by 2030 compared to those who make more, according to McKinsey. That's especially painful to people of color, women, and those with less higher education, since they're more represented in these lower-wage jobs. Customer service positions are likely to dwindle by 2 million and office support by 3.7 million, per McKinsey, both of which are roles that are women-dominated.
Health care and high-paying roles will win the A.I. wave
On the other hand, the sectors that were strong over the last couple of years will continue to thrive, McKinsey predicts. These more stable positions include business and legal roles, health care, management, transportation, and STEM jobs.
The health care industry has gone through some famous growing pains as of late (due to strenuous hours and low wages), but it’s likely to stand tall throughout the next decade. As the population ages, the sector will continue to experience demand even as A.I. rises; McKinsey predicts there will be an extra 3.5 million health care jobs and an extra 2 million for health care professionals. Those working in transportation services will see a more modest, but still stable growth of 9% by 2030. And STEM jobs are set to see a 23% hike in demand by the end of the decade.
While low-wage workers are projected to move around, those in the highest wage quartile could experience an increase of jobs by 3.8 million, according to McKinsey.
Just because fewer people are likely to leave these jobs than in other sectors (less than 1 million by 2030), that doesn’t mean the nature of the beast isn't changing. Even if these jobs are likely to remain stable, day-to-day activities might be forever altered by the new technology. “The biggest impact for knowledge workers that we can state with certainty is that generative A.I. is likely to significantly change their mix of work activities,” note the McKinsey authors.
