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International Business Times UK

Briane Nebria

The Winds of Winter Release Date: Kalshi Prediction Markets Reveal Overwhelming Odds Against 2026 Launch

Kalshi George RR Martin HBO

George R.R. Martin’s long-delayed fantasy epic The Winds of Winter is now seen as having bleak prospects of reaching readers any time in the near future. (Credit: CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons)

George R.R. Martin's long‑awaited fantasy novel The Winds of Winter is facing brutal odds of arriving any time soon, with prediction market platform Kalshi pricing the chance of a 2026 release date announcement at just 11 per cent as of mid‑2026.

The Winds of Winter is the sixth instalment in Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire saga, the book series that spawned HBO's Game of Thrones. The previous novel, A Dance with Dragons, came out in 2011.

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