The only thing certain for many Welsh rugby players right now is the uncertainty.
Financial pressures hammering their teams are forcing difficult decisions to be made as those in charge of the purse strings at the four professional sides try to make the numbers add up.
Players are also having to make tough calls.
Such is Welsh professional rugby in 2023.
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We take a look at the situation of many as things stand.
DEFINITELY MOVING ON …
Will Rowlands
The Dragons announced in December that they would be losing Rowlands, whom they called “arguably the best second row in the world in our eyes". Last season’s Welsh player of the year certainly would have been useful to have around for another year. But he is reportedly joining Racing 92.
Max Llewellyn
News that the hard-running centre would be leaving Wales in the summer was confirmed recently when Gloucester announced the 24-year-old’s capture from Cardiff.
Tiaan Thomas-Wheeler
A bit of a surprise this one, with the former Wales U20s centre heading out to Japan to take up a short-term deal. A spot of congestion in the Ospreys’ midfield, with Owen Watkin, Keiran Williams, Joe Hawkins, George North and Michael Collins available, meant the youngster’s opportunities were limited at the Swansea.com Stadium region.
Jarrod Evans
It was reported earlier this year that one of Welsh rugby’s most creative players was leaving Cardiff. James Hook described the impending exit of a player who’d been with the Arms Park club from the age of 14 as “devastating from a Cardiff point of view”. Evans’ destination hasn’t been confirmed but he’s believed to be heading for Harlequins.
Sione Kalamafoni
The relentlessly consistent and impressive Scarlets No. 8 has penned a two-year deal to play for Vannes, starting next term. The Pro D2 club will be getting an immense ball carrier and hard-hitting tackler for their money. They won’t be disappointed.
Tomas Lezana
The Argentina back rower has already left the Scarlets to join French side Montauban. He spent two seasons in Llanelli.
Javan Sebastian
The 28-year-old Scarlets tighthead and Scotland international is joining Edinburgh on a two-year contract. Sebastian hails from Carmarthenshire himself, qualifying for Scotland through his dad, who was born and raised in Edinburgh.
Blade Thomson
The Scarlets back row announced his retirement from playing earlier this year aged 32 after a head injury.
Stephen Myler
The veteran fly-half has been a wonderful influence at the Ospreys, with his steadfast personality and experience helping to point the way for younger players. But he packing in as a player at the end of the season. “Stephen has served us with the upmost distinction since signing and we wish him nothing but the best in his future endeavours,” said Ospreys head coach Toby Booth.
ON THE BRINK…
Dillon Lewis
The Cardiff tighthead has been heavily linked with a move to Harlequins. The odds seem stacked in favour of the move coming off.
Willis Halaholo and Dmitri Arhip
Luckless Wales centre Halaholo is facing an extended spell on the sidelines with an Achilles injury. He had previously been sidelined by a hamstring problem.
Front-row strongman Arhip also has an Achilles issue that’s keeping him out.
It doesn’t seem likely either will be at the Arms Park next term.
"We are there to look after rehab for Willis and Dmitri [Arhip], but where they are going next year I don't know. I don't know if they'll be our players next year,” said Cardiff coach Dai Young in early March.
"They knew the decision the club had made before their injuries. If we haven't got money to have competitive offers for Jarrod [Evans], why would we have for Willis and Dmitri?"
Dan Lydiate
“It’s nuts if a Welsh region doesn’t pick him up,” a regional player said off the record about Lydiate this week. “Not only is he still a great player, but he brings so much to a group off the pitch. Anyone signing him would get their money back in spades.”
But it doesn’t look as if he’ll be staying at the Ospreys, with Lydiate himself tweeting after the win over the Dragons: “Great to get over the whitewash. If anyone is looking for a young up and coming 6 for next season with plenty of life in him give me a call."
The blindside is a warrior, and even in Welsh rugby’s brave new world of across-the-board belt-tightening, and accepting that no-one goes on for ever, there should still be room for a player of his ilk.
Rhys Priestland
He indicated earlier this term he couldn't see himself carrying on post-this year at Cardiff.
Has anything changed? Welsh rugby's financial situation hasn't improved, that's for sure. Cardiff would probably want the cool-headed Priestland to stay, but can an arrangement be worked out for that to happen? Nothing seems sure at this point.
Far from it.
Alun Wyn Jones
Is he bowing out at the end of the season or not?
Everything about his exit from the field in last week's Ospreys v Dragons game suggested he might be.
But until it's official confirmed he's left the building, there still has to be a question mark.
UNCERTAINTIES AND RUMOURS
Josh Adams
The Wales international was linked with Lyon, who seemed prepared to buy him out of the remaining two years of his Cardiff contract, but a move there appears to have fallen through.
While there are suggestions a number of English clubs are interested in Adams — he’s a high-class player with a record of success in Test rugby — the potential fee to obtain release might be an issue.
Liam Williams
On the surface, he’s in a similar situation to Adams, as a senior international who presumably and understandably doesn’t come cheap to employ. Any move for either player would need the agreement of the player, the club and the Welsh Rugby Union.
A possible switch to Japan has been mentioned for Williams and he is a few years older than his fellow Wales back-three man, which could be a factor Cardiff and the WRU might weigh up. What’s certain is that, fully fit and firing, Williams would enhance any side, but, as with Adams, there are potential obstacles to get around before a move could become reality.
Ross Moriarty
Bayonne have apparently been among the clubs chasing the back rower.
There have been increased hopes in Newport that he might recommit to the Dragons.
But he wasn’t on their list of contract re-signings this week.
A major battle is ensuing for his services.
Nicky Smith
The speculation is that he could leave the Ospreys for Exeter Chiefs.
The Ospreys have been pulling out all the stops to keep him.
They have made him captain in recent weeks in a move that double underlines how much the homegrown product means to them.
Nothing is settled yet.
Dane Blacker
There are whispers suggesting the Scarlets scrum-half may be attracting interest from other teams.
He's done well out west, earning himself a place in Wales' autumn series squad without winning a cap.
But the Scarlets also have a surfeit of quality scrum-halves, among them a resurgent Gareth Davies, fellow Wales international Kieran Hardy and young gun Archie Hughes.
Let's see how this one goes.
Teddy Williams
Cardiff would be very keen to retain a player they have nurtured and have such high hopes for. But it’s been reported that Exeter Chiefs are keen to add him to their roster.
Ben Thomas
The Ospreys are reportedly in talks with the Cardiff youngster at a time when Stephen Myler is finishing and there’s uncertainty over Gareth Anscombe. No offer is said to have been tabled yet. Cardiff would doubtless want Thomas to stay, with Jarrod Evans set to leave and Rhys Priestland’s position also shrouded in doubt.
Sam Cross
There’s a highlights reel of the back-rower on social media but Cross’s team-mates don’t need to take a look to appreciate what the Wales international brings. On the pitch, there is the energy that you’d expect of an Olympic sevens silver medallist; off it, Cross, like Dan Lydiate, is hugely popular, the type of individual who is good to have around in a rugby environment. Injuries haven’t helped him this term and he’s out of contract, one of many in the ‘uncertain’ bracket, then.
Rey Lee-Lo
The rumour is he's set to check out at Cardiff after a brilliant stint in the club's midfield.
No confirmation yet, though.
Ryan Elias
Top English and French clubs are said to be tracking Elias at a time when Welsh rugby is all over the place financially.
But the Scarlets reportedly want to keep the product of their pathway system, who has captained the region.
All to play for, then.
Scott Baldwin
The hooker is out of contract and so mulling over his future.
A Wales squad member during the Six Nations, he wants to play in the World Cup but, as with others here, he is also said to be keen for the numbers and/or contract length to suit.
There is believed to be significant interest from outside the Ospreys in a player who has a spell in England on his CV.
Rhys Webb
The Wales international is said to be mulling over an offer to head for Japan, with his contract offer from the Ospreys apparently not overly impressing him.
WalesOnline reported recently his proposed deal at the Ospreys will see his salary cut in half while he has been offered an arrangement just for a year.
By contrast, his would-be suitors in Japan are seemingly prepared to offer him significant wages and a longer-term package.
The bleak financial situation in Wales has brought the situation about and players and clubs are having to make hard choices. It will be interesting to see how this one pans out.
Keiran Williams
He’s believed to be out of contract and as an uncapped player could leave the regional scene and still be eligible to play for Wales. Even with plenty of others on their books, the Ospreys would presumably want to keep him: the pocket-battleship centre with no reverse gear having special qualities.
Joe Hawkins
Reports from France linked him with Exeter Chiefs earlier this year. It seemed odd at the time, a French newspaper suggesting a Welsh player would be joining an English club. Anyway, Chiefs team boss Rob Baxter subsequently poured cold water on the speculation. Even so, there have been continued whispers on this one, even though Hawkins would be ineligible for Wales if he left the regional scene.
Leigh Halfpenny
A potential move to English rugby has been spoken about if the Scarlets are unable to make the figures add up on this one. The west Walians have Tom Rogers and Johnny McNicholl as potential full-back alternatives, although they do still value Halfpenny’s ultra-professionalism and his calm demeanour.
Gareth Anscombe
The vibe from the Ospreys this week didn’t make it obvious that Anscombe would be playing out of the Swansea.com Stadium next season. A talented player, he’s been unlucky with injuries, but talk of balancing acts and making “sure the pieces in the jigsaw fit” didn’t scream out that the fly-half would be on the books at Llandarcy for much longer. The Ospreys have also said they are prioritising the retention of younger players.
He is over his most recent injury problems and he is someone with considerable ability. Japan could be an option, possibly France. All things considered, it seems unlikely he’ll be at the Ospreys next term.
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