Talking Points
- England's Covid lockdown eased, to the delight of publicans
- France banned short-haul domestic flights with rail alternatives
- The EU laid out a plan to raise $1tn debt for Covid recovery
- The US slapped Russia with sanctions over the SolarWinds hack
- Abductions and political violence rose after the Uganda's election
- Israel attempted to disrupt Iran nuclear talks with a 'cyber-attack'
- A Japanese official let slip that the Olympics could be cancelled
- China's tech industry stepped back in line after Alibaba's $2.8b fine
- Coinbase became the first major crypto company to go public
- A paper outlined that just 3% of the world's ecosystems are intact
Dive deeper
US President Joe Biden has announced a withdrawal of American combat forces from Afghanistan by September 11. Faced with no prospect of victory, Biden is ending America's longest war.
The longest loss
Dust had barely settled on shattered remains of the Twin Towers when the United States started a war of retribution. Brushing over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's permissive influence on the 9/11 hijackers, Washington rounded on the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. The goal was to remove the Taliban from power and prevent the country from being used as a base for Al Qaeda in the future. Judged on these aims, the war has been a protracted and costly failure. The Taliban, having absorbed grievous losses, acts with supreme authority in many districts. Al Qaeda, hunted across the globe, also remains active there and its leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri is believed to be operating from within the country.
The fight ground to a stalemate more than a decade ago. At home support for the war was muted, bordering on absent, during both the Obama and Trump presidencies. That it dragged on anyway is a stain that will never be fully laundered from either president's reputation. Nor was the lack of support lost on America's troops in Afghanistan. Their common and plaintive refrain queried "why are we here?"
On Wednesday, Biden announced the withdrawal, going to great lengths to stress the no-win scenario. It is worth quoting at length. "We cannot continue this cycle of extending or expanding our military presence in Afghanistan, hoping to create ideal conditions for the withdrawal and expecting a different result. I'm now the fourth United States president to preside over American troop presence in Afghanistan. Two Republicans, two Democrats. I will not pass this responsibility on to a fifth."
So the Americans are leaving. What about everyone else? The rallying cry of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is "in together, out together". And so 9,600 non-US troops are preparing to follow the Americans out of Central Asia. But the Afghanistan they're leaving behind is on a precipice .
China, India, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia will have a larger role in years to come – all have backed one horse or another. The Taliban will clearly move to fill the power vacuum. But it is not guaranteed that they will take the entire country. If they do, two decades worth of progress on women's rights might be extinguished. But even if they don't , any further advance will leave Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, the de jure authority in Kabul, in direct conflict with the de facto rulers of the countryside. Peace talks have floundered. Direct negotiations between the Taliban and the central government are slated to begin again next weekend, but the Taliban's leadership has announced a boycott until foreign forces depart . Any peace deal would be preferable to civil war, but it's not at all clear that either side is preparing for peace in good faith. Regardless of what happens next, the United States will still likely make itself known: Biden is negotiating to simply move America's special forces and drones to neighbouring Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
Beyond the graveyard
Afghanistan boasts a history of conquest and resistance that stretches back to Darius I of Persia. It's a veritable laundry list: the Rashidun Caliphate, the Mongol Empire under Genghis Khan, the Timurid Empire, Sikh Maharajas, the British Empire, and the Soviet Union. Even Alexander the Great, at the height of his reign, marched through Afghanistan on his doomed campaign to India. In his wake, he left a town named after him. Over two millenia, time and translation have had their way with the city of "Alexander". Today we know it as Kandahar. And during the US-NATO invasion, 2331 years after the greatest Macedonian had left, the Taliban fought their last major action in this same town. The echoes of the past are audible to those who would listen.
The epithet "the graveyard of empires" is leaned on heavily when describing the extraordinary history of this place. It rings true for the British, who were slaughtered almost to the last man, in the retreat from Kabul in 1842. And so too for the veterans of the Soviet Union's disastrous occupation, old men and women now, who watched their friends blasted out of the sky by US-made missiles in the 1980s. Doubtless today there are ISAF veterans who cannot escape the image of fellow soldiers rent asunder by roadside bombs and mortars. Another imperial expedition bleeding out on the slopes of the Hindu Kush.
But we must push back against narratives that would define Afghans as either defenceless victims, or hardened guerrillas, buffeted between foreign powers. Afghans have their own proud history of art, culture, and early civilisations (Oxus, Indus, and Helmand). All this can be obscured by a too-quick designation as victim, or threat. Imagine this: a great many Afghans enjoy cricket and want to go to university to study electrical engineering, others just want to farm in peace. Some support the Taliban. Many don't. And the vast mass have suffered under both the Taliban and the occupying forces. There are 38 million people in Afghanistan, and many don't have meaningful political affiliation. They are simply trying to live a life the best way they can.
America and its allies lost the War in Afghanistan for the simple reason that their continued occupation guaranteed interminable resistance. Unlike the drone pilots who have haunted Central Asian skies, Afghans live in Afghanistan. In a stalemate, time was always on their side. Saddled with the weight of failure and the complete lack of public support, President Biden has made good on his predecessor's promise. But there will be a political price to pay – do you recall the helicopters on the embassy roof during the fall of Saigon? Whatever the sacrifice, it will pale next to the generations of Afghans who've had to pull pieces of their siblings and parents out of rubble after errant missile strikes and suicide bombings.
Worldlywise
A higher calling
The Hindu Kumbh Mela festival is the largest peaceful gathering of humans on the planet. In 2019, an estimated 50 million pilgrims travelled to bathe at the confluence of the Ganges and Yamuna rivers. Stepping into the life-giving rivers is an important cleansing ritual. This year, the Mela is being held far higher up the Ganges - in Haridwar. And for the first time ever, authorities have been forced to place restrictions on the event – it has been shortened to 48 days from three and a half months. This is one of several efforts being made to reduce the risk of coronavirus infection; pilgrims are also being assigned times for visiting one of the 16 bathing ghats along the river. But will it be enough?
There is also a relatively small number of attendees this year - just 4,851,000 so far. But the vast majority of them have been flouting requirements to wear masks and socially distance. According to the Uttarakhand State Control Room, out of 250,000 tests done this week, 2,000 have returned positive . As feared, this year's Kumbh Mela is shaping up to be a super-spreader event. And it couldn't happen at a worse time. India's case count has rocketed up to 200,000 per day. And just as the outbreak worsens dramatically, another mass exodus of migrant workers is now under way.
The only saving grace is that, inscrutably, India's Covid fatality rate remains below the international average.
Throwing the baby out with the wastewater
Sweeping things under the rug has obvious short term benefits. Though it's a tactic of diminishing returns.
It's been a decade since a 9.0-9.1 magnitude earthquake and subsequent tsunami damaged and flooded the SCRAMed reactors of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. What followed was a level seven meltdown (for reference: there is no level eight in the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale). In the midst of the worst natural disaster in Japanese history, the government was faced with the prospect of a nuclear catastrophe. Thankfully, much of it was averted. But the damage at Fukushima Daiichi was critical: damaged reactors leaked contaminated water so authorities pumped more water in to cool the fuel rods. It's been treated and stored on site, 1 million metric tons of the stuff.
Now the Yoshihide Suga's government wants to begin releasing it into the Pacific. It's been stressed that while the treated water still contains the radioactive isotope tritium, it occurs at levels that do not pose a threat to humans. The South Koreans and Taiwanese aren't convinced. China's Foreign Ministry has demanded that Japanese politicians drink the water first to prove its safety. This, admittedly, is a fairly funny suggestion. Many have questioned whether Tokyo has overlooked other options because of their price-tag.
Regional environmental concerns such as this deserve honest-dealing and cooperation. But not if petty international politics has anything to do with it! The US, which has some form in irradiating Asia, has fallen in line behind Suga's government. No doubt that support will be used as quip pro quo for Japan keeping the pressure up on Beijing.
Finally, it wouldn't be a story about Japan without a cute mascot. This week the delight cartoon 'Tritium-kun' ('Little Mr Tritium') was launched to explain that tritium is only dangerous in large quantities. It did not find an audience and was pulled immediately. As one fisher said, "The gap between the gravity of the problems we face and the levity of the character is huge".
The best of times
Luxe at Luxor
Archaeologists have found Egypt’s largest ancient city: a 3,000-year-old settlement buried under sand in Luxor . The discovery is hailed by experts as the second-most important archaeological find since Tutankhamun’s tomb. Known as the ‘Rise of Aten’, the city includes intact walls, a bakery with ovens, and evidence of several industries. As such, we’ve been able to take a rare glimpse into what Ancient Egyptian when the empire was at its wealthiest.
How to mend a broken heart
For years we have looked upon the zebrafish with jealousy due to its ability to heal its own heart. A breakthrough this week means we could someday do the same. All we need to do is procure the klf1 gene — which tells heart cells to begin the regeneration process . It does so by making the cardiomyocytes more immature and changing their metabolic wiring. There's hope yet for all the spurned lovers of the world.
The worst of times
Police slayings shock Minneapolis, Chicago
Incessant police brutality in America indicates that little progress has been made in the year since George Floyd was killed. Just 10 miles from where Floyd was asphyxiated, 20-year-old Daunte Wright was shot by a police officer. Body cam footage reveals the officer grabbed a gun instead of her taser and fired, despite her years of experience. As a result, Black communities around the country are once again forced to grieve a life prematurely taken by police. Just days later the Chicago police released body-cam footage of their officers shooting an unarmed 13-year-old Adam Toledo who had surrendered.
Half the sky, none of the autonomy
Nearly half of women across 57 developing countries do not have autonomy over their own body, a report revealed this week. The UN found that ‘hundreds of millions’ of women are unable to choose when they have sex with their partners, or access healthcare or contraception. As with many other existing inequalities, the pandemic is also exacerbating the number of women without body autonomy. Additionally, 20 of the countries studied had ‘marry your rapist’ laws — which allow men to avoid prosecution if they marry the woman or girl they raped.
Weekend Reading
The image
The quote
“I think we need to do better for our employees.”
– Outgoing CEO and chair Jeff Bezos on the failed union drive at the Bessemer, Alabama warehouse. How about just doing better?
The numbers
18.3%
- China's year-on-year Q1 GDP growth grabbed all the headlines yesterday. It's quarter-on-quarter growth tells a different story.
534,302,000 tonnes of coal
- That's the shortfall of US coal production in 2020. It's down 24% annually in two consecutive years. Farewell!
The headline
"Human cells grown in monkey embryos reignite ethics debate" – The Guardian . How about we try some science that isn't weird?
The special mention
Bernie Madoff died in jail this week. As far as white collar crime goes, he stands alone in the sheer scale of his $50b Ponzi scheme. He also stands alone as a white collar criminal from the America of 2007-2009 that actually served time for his crimes.
A few choice long-reads
- There are some pieces of writing that simply command your attention. This is one of them: David Treuer in The Atlantic on why America's national parks must be returned to the tribes.
- Some tricky characters try to sell the Brooklyn Bridge. Elon Musk sold a well-lit hole in the ground. Businessweek on the Boring Company debut in Las Vegas.
- Here's a curveball: if we love animals so much – why do we treat them so badly? A cracker from the Financial Times.
Tom Wharton @trwinwriting
