There was a time—an extremely long period of time—in which the Warriors could largely get away with making certain mistakes.
Golden State could often turn the ball over. It could turn on the jets for just one incredible third quarter. The club could lean on the greatness of its superstar, Stephen Curry.
But what we’re seeing in this series against the No. 3 seed Kings is relatively clear: The Warriors no longer enjoy the vast margin for error that they used to. And that reality not only poses a clear and present danger to the defending champions’ hopes of repeating, but it might leave the club without so much as a trip to the second round of the NBA playoffs.
With their 114–106 loss Monday in Sacramento, the Dubs now trail 2–0 in their best-of-seven series against the Kings, the first time the trio of Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green has lost the first two games of a playoff series. It also marks the first time since the 2019 NBA Finals—which an injury-plagued Golden State team ended up losing against the Raptors—that the Warriors have lost back-to-back games in a playoff series.
On some level, none of this should come as a surprise. After all, the Pacific Division champion Kings had the better record, the more cohesive group and were highly consistent all season, no matter where they played. Meanwhile, the Warriors were unrecognizably bad on the road and had considerable roster turbulence, ranging from Curry’s injuries, the awkward situation and eventual trade involving young center James Wiseman, the nebulous swap agreement for Gary Payton II and then Andrew Wiggins’s two-month absence right before a high-stakes postseason run.
It leaves the Warriors with less ammo to overcome certain problems from game to game. Monday’s defeat highlighted tactical, emotional and lackadaisical mistakes that were simply too problematic for Golden State to outrun.
The tactical issues rested largely with coach Steve Kerr, who, wonderful as he is, can sometimes be a bit too lax about utilizing his best lineups. It’s understandable: For years, he enjoyed the team’s uber-efficient Death Lineup (and then the Hamptons Five group) that generally made up ground before you could blink. But Monday, with the team clearly unable to stay in front of speedy All-Star De’Aaron Fox, Kerr—perhaps trying to ease Wiggins back into things—was slow in terms of matching Wiggins’s sub patterns against Fox’s. Similarly, Payton’s minutes should likely be extended to match shifty reserve Malik Monk’s, especially when Payton, known for his defense, hits five of his six shots from an offensive perspective. The Warriors have been a +9 in the 23 minutes Wiggins, Payton and Green have shared this series.
The emotional flaw stemmed from Draymond Green, who, after having his leg held by a floor-bound Domantas Sabonis, apparently decided to stomp on Sabonis’s ribcage area. Green often gets an enormous leash with his antics—an issue we’ve written about in recent weeks—but officials determined this was a step too far and ejected him from the game. The ruling left Golden State without its best connector and screener on offense, and its former Defensive Player of the Year on the other end, as the Warriors trailed 91–87 with seven minutes left. (Golden State let up a blistering 153 points per 100 possessions following Green’s ejection. For context, Green’s defensive rating in Game 1—115 points per 100—was tied for a team best.)
And perhaps most obvious: Golden State’s lackadaisical issues were on full display again. The Warriors’ casual nature with the ball would be hard to believe if they hadn’t already played that way for years. But, this season, they ranked dead last in turnovers committed and turnover percentage, slightly worse than last season, when they ranked second worst in both categories before going on to win the NBA title. (They also tied for second worst in turnover rate in 2017–18 before going on to win that season’s crown.) Maybe the club has grown too cavalier in some ways, believing it can at some point always generate a scoring flurry big enough to outrun all the miscues. Hell, the Warriors held a six-point lead heading into Monday’s second period despite nine first-quarter turnovers (partly because the Warriors turned over cold-shooting Sacramento nine times in that span).
Golden State’s mistakes consistently breathed more life into the Kings in Game 2. Sacramento’s first eight points all stemmed from Warriors turnovers. And by game’s end, the Kings had a whopping 25 points off Golden State’s 20 turnovers—an enormous boon, given that Sacramento was ice cold from three-point range, at just 9-for-38, for 23.7%. (The Kings, among the NBA’s most prolific shooting teams, had a 5–6 record in the regular season when they made fewer than 10 triples.)
But perhaps even more than its shooting, Sacramento thrives off its ability to run after forcing a turnover. Led by the speed of Fox, the Kings generated 137 points per 100 possessions immediately following a live-ball turnover, according to analytics site Inpredictable. Put another way, feasting off mistakes was essentially the most efficient form of offense for the most efficient offensive group in NBA history. And with careless pass after careless pass, Golden State repeatedly teed up the fast-paced Kings to run in transition.
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None of this is to say all the Warriors’ mistakes were unforced, or that Sacramento didn’t make things happen. If anything, the Kings are validating the idea that some laid out before the playoffs began—yes, Sacramento has issues on defense, but good luck trying to stop the club’s wrecking ball of an offense.
The far-more athletic Kings are competing incredibly hard on D, and deflected passes on each of Golden State’s first four possessions to begin Monday’s contest. Backup center Alex Len, a top-five pick from a decade ago who played less than 200 minutes this season, has been incredibly impactful defensively off the bench, allowing Sabonis a few breathers. And Sacramento is illustrating an ability to withstand a punch from the Warriors, something not every opponent—especially ones untested in the postseason—can say.
Thankfully for the Warriors, they’ll be back in their own building Thursday when play resumes for Game 3, but they’d be foolish to assume that guarantees them anything. Their shortcomings have been on clear display in this series, and with the Kings in position to potentially go up 3–0, the Warriors have no more room to try to outrun their mistakes the way they’ve done in the past.
