Since Hamas’ horrific attacks of October 7, the Biden administration has been clear and consistent in its expectations for the eventual outcome of the Israeli military offensive that has devastated the Gaza Strip. Early on, President Biden laid out his red lines for post-conflict policy in Gaza. “To start, Gaza must never again be used as a platform for terrorism. There must be no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, no reoccupation, no siege or blockade, and no reduction in territory. And after this war is over, the voices of Palestinian people and their aspirations must be at the center of post-crisis governance in Gaza.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken doubled down on the president’s position at a speech in Tokyo, echoing Biden’s prohibitions against forced displacement, reoccupation, reduction in Gaza’s territory, use of Gaza as a platform for terrorism, and besiegement. The administration is now referring to those five prohibitions as the “Tokyo principles,” holding them up as the basis of U.S. policy regarding Gaza.
Principles, rather like New Year's resolutions, often are incredibly worthy. The trouble is with their implementation - and the gulf between their stated principles and what the Biden administration has thus far accepted from its Israeli partners is stark.
First off, the notion that Gaza shouldn’t be used as a platform for terrorism isn’t controversial. The horrific acts of October 7 have rightfully been condemned, including by my organization, repeatedly. Yet, the administration’s endorsement of a military solution to destroy Hamas fails to engage with our very own history of trying to defeat terrorism on the battlefield. Two decades of war in Afghanistan ended without eradicating al Qaeda and the Taliban back in charge. In Iraq, a war premised on removing the threat from Saddam Hussein’s regime resulted in violent instability and directly spawned the horrors of ISIS, requiring another war to which the U.S. is still committing troops. And throughout the parts of northern Africa where the war on terror has expanded, the results have been spreading violence, military coups, and a surge in the number and power of extremist organizations. While ‘mission accomplished’ has been declared more than once, the failure of our own war on terrorism is crystal clear.
Even Biden’s own Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin, said: “If you drive [civilians in Gaza] into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat.” The War On Terror was the igniting force behind the creation of ISIS - imagining what a more extreme group than Hamas would be in Gaza is horrifying even to comprehend. We should be forwarding these lessons to the Israeli government - not enabling a strategy that will lead to even more horrific cycles of violence.
Also, the current military strategy is a threat to hostages still held by Hamas. Weeks of war delivered the release of a single hostage and the accidental killing of three others, while the temporary ceasefire saw more than a hundred reunited with their families. The concern over the treatment of the hostages is real and urgent. We should be doing everything we can to get hostages released and there’s been a single pathway that has delivered results - diplomacy and a ceasefire.
Second, the president made clear that Palestinians must not be forcibly displaced in Gaza. The Israeli government has advocated for just that outcome, including Gila Gamliel, Israel’s intelligence minister, who argued for “a worldwide refugee resettlement scheme” and said that those who supported Palestinians should be willing to “welcome Gazans to their countries.” Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called forced displacement “correct, just, moral, and humane,” while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said that forced displacement from Gaza is “what needs to be done.”
Such comments are not only dangerous to Palestinians but for Muslims and Arabs experiencing hate around the world - including here at home. But only when the call started being echoed repeatedly did the Biden administration offer a public condemnation, and even then it came from a State Department spokesperson - not the White House.
Even if the Biden administration is more vocal in private conversations with their Israeli counterparts, we know the current strategy is not working. According to the United Nations, nearly 1.9 million Gazans (85 percent of the population) have been displaced since October 7, and there is no plan in place to get them back to their homes.
While we are told that Israeli military operations in Gaza have slowed down, there is little evidence to back that up. The Israeli government is still pushing further into the South of Gaza, where only weeks ago it told people to flee to safety. The conditions near Gaza's southern border are overcrowded and the people do not have access to clean water or basic medical support - where organizations have warned about the outbreak of disease and a humanitarian catastrophe.
As Gaza has been reduced to rubble, the Biden administration has offered little: no concrete public plans of its own, no public regional forums on how to rebuild Gaza. The Biden Administration can and should work with Arab leaders as well as civil society groups in Palestine to commit resources and political support so people in Gaza can rebuild and safely return to their homes.
Lastly, the president said that “the voices of Palestinian people and their aspirations must be at the center of post-crisis governance in Gaza.” Yet, there haven’t been high-profile roundtables of Palestinian leaders with the president or Palestinian voices alongside the U.S., Israel, and Arab leaders to lay out a political solution that offers peace and dignity for Palestinians and Israelis alike. There’s been little talk of which civil society groups the administration is engaging on the ground who have key perspectives to offer. Such conversations won’t be easy, especially given the widespread grief in these communities. Still, it is an opportunity for this administration to lead and model the behavior needed to make this principle a reality. As this crisis polarizes people in the U.S., the president and all senior members of the administration have a key responsibility: centering and engaging with Palestinian voices to counter the destructive ‘us vs them’ narratives and humanize the debate.
Thankfully, the Biden administration has a track record that shows that when it chooses to use them it makes a difference in the calculation of the Israeli government.
The administration did the right thing when it helped broker a temporary ceasefire that saw dozens of hostages reunited with their families and gave people in Gaza access to aid and a respite from bombing. They’ve taken other concrete steps such as warning the Israeli government that they were violating the visa waiver agreement if they arbitrarily denied Palestinian Americans living in the West Bank entry into Israel. They’ve also issued sanctions against West Bank settlers who are convicted of violence towards Palestinians. After both these moves, the Israeli government shifted its approach somewhat. The Biden Administration has leverage — and an obligation to apply pressure.
As the violence and regional volatility continue to escalate, the administration is running out of time to use its leverage to help shift us away from more devastation and certain catastrophes. If the Tokyo Principles are to be taken seriously, the Biden administration needs to take concrete action to enforce them. If it does not, the Israeli government has shown that it will simply ignore the principles, immiserating Gazans even further and dealing yet another blow to U.S. credibility.
