The war in Ukraine holds two lessons: Russia isn’t an imminent threat, and Europe must rearm regardless

‘Remove the threat of a Russian invasion, and the real argument for European rearmament is that it is necessary to make peace with Russia.’ Photograph: Darko Vojinović/AP

Two years into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, warnings of war between Russia and the west have reached fever pitch in Europe and Britain. The explicit intention of these warnings is to create public support for massive spending on rearmament, on the old principle of “scare the hell out of them”.

The goal of European rearmament is laudable; the arguments being used to bring it about are not. As long as the war in Ukraine continues, there is a real risk that Nato and Russia will stumble into war as the result of some unintended clash. But the chances that this will come about as the result of a premeditated Russian invasion of a Nato country are minimal.