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The Conversation
The Conversation
Thomas Gift, Associate Professor and Director of the Centre on US Politics, UCL

The vote in Pennsylvania could decide the US election – it’s a battle for the suburbs

Donald Trump Pennsylvania Kamala Harris Taylor Swift United States Democratic Party Republican

Pennsylvania has many slogans and nicknames. “The Keystone State.” “State of Independence.” “Home of beer, chocolate, and liberty and Taylor Swift.” And now: “centre of the political universe”.

According to recent analysis by political statistician Nate Silver, how Pennsylvania swings on November 5 is likely to determine the next leader of the free world. If Kamala Harris wins the state, her odds of taking the White House reach 91%. If Trump wins, his odds skyrocket to 96%.

That’s how much Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes matter (270 are needed to win the Electoral College), and how much the state is a bellwether nationally for how each candidate is performing with “must-win” voters.

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