“There are plenty of surprises — it’s a team South Africa wouldn’t have expected.”
So reckoned a contact when asked before the squad announcement what Wayne Pivac’s Wales selection looked like for the series opener against the Springboks. The source wasn’t wrong.
Few would have predicted the side Wales’ head coach has chosen to run with for Saturday’s encounter at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, and it would be wrong to suggest the mood was one of unbridled optimism from a Welsh perspective after news of the selection started circulating. The side shows eight changes from the team which started against Italy in the Six Nations.
Read more: Wayne Pivac explains his Wales selection decisions for first Test against South Africa
Rugby correspondent Mark Orders assesses the thinking behind the picks:
Pivac opts for his very own TR7
Being thrown in at the deep end in no way adequately describes the experience of making a Test debut against world champions South Africa at Loftus Versfeld. Perhaps being dispatched from a plane into the Indian Ocean at its choppiest might come close.
How will you be spending your time on Saturday afternoon? Tommy Reffell will be making his Wales bow against the Springboks in Pretoria.
But here’s the thing: the teak-hard No. 7 from Pencoed will not be fazed by the prospect one bit. To him, it will be a chance to test himself against the best in the world right now.
As Garin Jenkins said before Wales’ Five Nations game with France in 1999: "Am I daunted about going out to Paris? Not at all. It’s a game of rugby and nothing more. No-one’s going to be singing The Old Rugged Cross at the final whistle. You just go there, play the match, enjoy it and go home. End of."
Jenkins was an old-school one-off, but there’s not much that sparks fear in Reffell, either.
His expertise over the ball and warrior-like nature has previously seen him compared with Sam Warburton. With Dan Lydiate at blindside and Taulupe Faletau at No. 8, Wales have picked a back-row they will hope will counter South Africa’s physicality. Reffell is also match-fit having recently played for Leicester Tigers in their Gallagher Premiership playoff games.
It is tough on Josh Navidi, who has never let Wales down, but he is likely to appear off the bench at some point.
Hardy spirit
Wayne Pivac has consistently made clear he wants Wales to play with pace and tempo. The trouble is it’s hard to do that without the ball.
It is why Kieran Hardy needs his pack to deliver a decent supply of possession in the South African capital. That the Scarlet is fast is not in doubt. He is quick with ball in hand and Pivac will have told him to get the ball away from South Africa’s big forwards as rapidly as possible.
Tomos Williams finished the regular season amid a couple of injuries, which wouldn’t have helped his cause.
In truth, there has been no clear evidence on the Test stage that there’s a lot between Hardy, Williams and Gareth Davies at scrum-half. All have had their moments, but sustained excellence from No. 9 has not been a feature of Pivac’s Wales teams.
But this is a chance for Hardy. He performed well in opposition to Antoine Dupont during the Six Nations and is up against another top-class performer in Faf de Klerk. Wales need him to be at his best.
Front-row matters
Wyn Jones, Dewi Lake and Tomas Francis? Not this time as front-row starters. Instead, Pivac has opted for Gareth Thomas, Ryan Elias and Dillon Lewis in his run-on XV.
Jones picked up an injury playing for the Scarlets against Cardiff in late season, so his omission isn’t a complete surprise. Thomas had a decent campaign for the Ospreys and is respected as a scrummager and one of the best tackling props in the United Rugby Championship.
There is little between Elias and Lake, with Elias having a fine Six Nations and a shade more experience, but starting Lewis ahead of Francis is a surprise. Francis has been carrying a back problem, but the assumption is if he’s fit enough to feature off the bench then he’s in shape to start: after all, he could be required to take the field after five minutes were Lewis to sustain an early injury.
Lewis is strong around the field, with his breakdown work outstanding, but South Africa will want to examine his ability as a scrummager.
Potentially, Pivac has made his calls with an eye to the bomb squad South Africa have on the bench, with Steven Kitshoff, Malcolm Marx and Vincent Koch set to take the field in the second half. The problem with that line of thinking is that the Boks’ starting front-row trio is none too shabby in its own right. However you cut it, a challenging afternoon awaits the Welsh scrum.
Lydiate returns
Horses for courses? That sounds about right. Paul O’Connell once admitted to asking Lydiate for individual tackling coaching. That was on the Lions tour of 2013, but the Welsh warrior remains one of the best defensive players in the game.
His primary job this weekend will be to cut down South African ball-carriers for the likes of Tommy Reffell and Taulupe Faletau to claim turnovers. At 6ft 4in and 17st 7lb, Lydiate is a physical specimen and a Test animal. You can read more about his remarkable rugby return here.
Some will question whether he has the pace for Test rugby at 34. But zipping around the field has never been his game. He is about brick-wall defence, clearing out rucks and fronting up when others have lost the will to do so. How he performs will be vital to the Welsh effort.
A tight call out wide
There had been mild expectation Alex Cuthbert would start against South Africa. After all, he banged in three fine performances during the Six Nations, with his effort against England at Twickenham one of the best displays of his Test career. And he has shown in the past he can rise to the challenge of facing the Springboks on away soil. Cuthbert is physical, good in the air, experienced and a dangerous runner.
But the vote has gone to Louis Rees-Zammit. His pace will always worry opponents and he has shown in his club rugby that he can score from virtually anywhere on the field. If Wales get ball to him in space, he will threaten and potentially score tries.
The other side of the ledger is his defence. South Africa will look to test him. He needs to respond.
Alun Wyn Jones and all that
It is the first time in a long while that Alun Wyn Jones hasn’t started when available for a big game for Wales. The move isn’t a total surprise.
Adam Beard is Wales’ pack leader and a player Pivac evidently sees as key going forward, while Will Rowlands has just been named Welsh player of the year.
Jones will not accept his omission from the side with a shrug of the shoulders. He is too big a competitor to operate on those terms. Instead, he will do all he can to support the starting pair and the rest of the run-on XV, because, more than anything else, he is a team man and always has been.
Doubtless, he will also throw the paint pot at the challenge of winning back his starting place. Pivac would expect nothing else.
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