Keir Starmer’s partial U-turn last night allowing the Americans to use British RAF bases for defensive purposes against Iran may well be seen as the first stage of Britain being sucked into a war in the Middle East.
But in the crucial hours ahead for the prime minister, the ghosts of the premierships of Tony Blair and the late Labour prime minister Harold Wilson hang over his difficult decisions.
The lessons of Labour’s recent history will explain why Sir Keir will not be able to take the UK into war – even if he wanted to.
As prime minister, Wilson made the decision to refuse to go into Vietnam with Britain’s American allies.
History has shown he made the right call. But at the time, in the late 1960s, it was a controversial decision.
In attack lines from the right, which may sound very familiar today, Wilson was accused of harming the Special Relationship with the UK’s most important ally and making Britain look irrelevant. Other allies, like Australia, sent soldiers to help in the war effort and regretted it.
Of course, Sir Tony made the opposite decision with Iraq. He thought it was better for British interests to be the closest ally of America – even if it was led by a right-wing Republican president.
In fact, as his famous speech in Chicago in 1999 showed, Blair embraced the concept of positive military action and regime change as a foreign policy goal even before George W Bush did.
Now the world is seeing another Middle East war escalating as a result of the massive military attack on Iran ordered by Donald Trump.
Sir Keir came under intense attack from the right – both Tories and Reform – for not allowing the US to use RAF bases or even for playing an active military role in those attacks.
As ever in his premiership, Sir Keir sought to take the middle way and got little thanks for it. He initially refused to give the US permission, but once things got hot, he authorised defensive measures for allies and UK assets in the region.
But it is important to note that he is highly unlikely to follow the example of his predecessor Sir Tony, even if the UK suffers more direct attacks from Iran, as happened last night at its Cyprus base or on British streets with terror attacks.
After all, Sir Keir has already noted that 20 Iran-sponsored terror attacks in the UK were thwarted in the last 12 months. That would have provided more than enough justification to get involved with Trump’s war.
Some will point to the fact that as a human rights lawyer obsessed with international law, he will tie himself up over the legality of this conflict. Certainly, his closest ministerial ally and friend – attorney general Lord Hermer – has suggested it is illegal, according to reports.
But the harsh truth is that Starmer cannot get involved much more in a war because he is in an incredibly weak position.
When Blair backed Bush in Iraq, he was at the peak of his political powers and he only just got intervention over the line with a dodgy dossier, a rebellion and two cabinet resignations – Robin Cook and Clare Short. It eventually broke his premiership.
Starmer starts in a position where he has just lost Labour’s seventh safest seat to the left-wing Greens, is facing attempts to oust him by Labour MPs, is staring down the barrel at humiliating election results on 7 May and is one of the most unpopular prime ministers in modern history.
He has no moral or political authority to take the UK into a full-scale war, even if he wanted to – which is highly doubtful anyway.
Even his concession to allow the US to use RAF bases for defensive actions was condemned by large elements on Labour’s backbenches last night and it seems impossible to imagine that he can go much further.
The only way the UK could get involved in this war – beyond defensive measures – would require an appalling atrocity committed by Iran on this country. Even then, there would be a long debate within Labour over whether the UK should be negotiating first.
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