It is going to be nasty, brutish and very, very long. The general election is probably more than a year away, but the campaign has already begun. Sir Keir Starmer refettled his shadow cabinet with the main aim of having an election-ready top team. The Tories have spent the summer weeks straining – and failing – to induce voters to think better of them. Broken Britain was set to be a major electoral theme even before crumbling concrete in schools became so emblematic of the decayed state of the public realm. We head into the party conference season with Labour continuing to enjoy the double-digit poll lead that has been sustained for a year.
Seeking something, anything, to cheer themselves up, some Tories believe that they still have a few trump cards in their hand. Dog-eared political playbooks from past elections suggest to them that immigration can be weaponised to their advantage. So do memories of how the Leave crew in the Brexit referendum campaign exploited the issue with such toxic potency. There’s a belief that making immigration one of the defining dividing lines of the contest could serve the Conservatives and hurt Sir Keir’s party. Some in Labour’s high command turn a bit queasy at the thought.
