There isn’t much a Tory prime minister can say these days without sparking an internal debate. As Rishi Sunak has fast discovered, any discussion on planning, economic growth or even childcare has the potential to lead to a war of words between the various factions in the Conservative party on the correct approach. It’s one of the reasons his advisers are in the process of slimming down the legislative agenda – scrapping bills that are viewed as a distraction or too divisive to get through.
But one area where Sunak has taken the view that there is still ample Tory support is on strikes. The prime minister plans to start the new year by introducing to the Commons this week new anti-strike laws, to enforce minimum service levels in key public sectors. While the unions have seen red, plenty of Tory MPs have praised the move and made the argument against inflation-linked pay rises across the board. The right of the party – who talk admiringly of how Margaret Thatcher took on the unions – are urging Sunak to do the same. The grassroots, too, appear to agree on pay restraint – a recent ConservativeHome poll found that seven in 10 party members support the government’s position.
“I’d say we are pretty united,” says a former minister of the mood in the party as MPs return to parliament after the Christmas break. A serving minister adds: “The public are not on the side of Mick Lynch [or that of] train drivers who are paid almost twice the average salary in the country.”
Yet for all the tough talk, there is an increasing sense across government that the situation is fragile – and could change quickly. Until now, the government has been trying to win the argument on reasonableness. Ministers are told to appear as reasonable as possible in all media appearances and in talks – as they attempt to paint the unions as out of touch. Faced with the prospect of months more of industrial action and other professions joining the fray (the ballot for teaching unions closes this week), ministers fear they could lose that argument both with the public and MPs. To avoid that, the prime minister needs to show that his strategy leads to results.
There have been hints of movement from No 10, with Sunak inviting union leaders to talks on Monday in an attempt to find a resolution. Speaking on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, he offered what the general secretary of the Royal College of Nursing, Pat Cullen, described as a “chink of optimism”, when he appeared to leave the door open to discussions on pay rises for 2022-23. Previously, Downing Street has been insisting that it wouldn’t revisit pay packages.
However, this hope proved short-lived. While a government source talked up the discussions as useful and constructive, the nursing union took a different view. Speaking after the meeting, the Royal College of Nursing’s Joanne Galbraith-Marten said there was “no resolution to our dispute yet in sight”.
Part of the reason government aides are keen to keep the idea of progress alive (even if the unions are quick to decry it) is that they want to show Sunak has a grip on the issue. With other professions poised to join the industrial action, there is a worry that it could look as though events are spiralling out of control.
It comes as concern grows in the party over the realities of continuing industrial action. So far, only a handful of Tory MPs have spoken out publicly to call for Sunak to show greater flexibility in order to find a resolution – and this has been targeted at healthcare workers. Robert Buckland, the former justice secretary, has said there should be a “middle way” on nurses’ pay, and the former party chairman Jake Berry has also said ministers should “meet somewhere in the middle”. However, given Berry is rather quick to criticise the Sunak government these days – “Tell me an issue he is happy on,” snipes a Sunak ally – his intervention is viewed as the less worrying of the two.
But wider concerns are building. The worry among senior Tories is twofold. First, that prolonged strike action will feed into a more general sense of – as one former cabinet minister puts it – “the old British sickness” kicking back in. A poisonous cocktail of stagnant productivity and unions out of control will lead voters to blame the serving government because of a sense the country is in decline. At a time when MPs are emphasising the need for growth, the strikes risk putting many hospitality businesses on the back foot. “If the country isn’t working – and it isn’t – the government will always be blamed in the end,” says one senior Tory.
Second is the crisis unfolding in the NHS. While Sunak might not want to refer to it as a crisis, there is little debate within the Tory party that the service is on its knees. It means that while MPs are happy to go to war with figures such as Mick Lynch, at a time when the health service is already seriously struggling and the government needs to increase the workforce, the strikes are viewed as counter-productive. It’s also where the greatest public sympathy is – with Sunak keen to emphasise that health workers are valued.
Yet anyone awaiting a U-turn on strikes from the government could be disappointed. While there is a particular focus on finding a resolution with nurses, Downing Street has long argued that this is beset with problems. As soon as the government gives in on pay with one sector, the others will dig in further. It wants to avoid higher pay rises across the board. There are also advisers to Sunak who worry what anything looking like a U-turn would do to his own personal authority.
The preferred approach in No 10 remains to focus in the immediate term on changes to working conditions – and general job security. Then attempt to steer the conversation on pay to the 2023-24 settlements. The view in Downing Street is that with the financial year about to come to an end, talks should look forward not backwards. With inflation expected to halve this year, the government could soon find itself on more comfortable terrain.
But if that fails, Sunak will come under pressure to try other means to bring the issue to a close. Tory MPs say they want a leader like Thatcher – one who is not for turning. But on strikes, Thatcher did not treat each one as the same and picked her battles. It means Sunak could have to adopt a more flexible approach if he is to bring an end to the disruption – and keep his party behind him until the spring.
Katy Balls is political editor of the Spectator
