Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Wales Online
Wales Online
Sport
Simon Thomas

The South Africa Six Nations bombshell explained as plan for Italy to be ousted sparks anger

There is a real Six Nations storm brewing amid reports that South Africa could replace Italy in the tournament from 2025.

Reaction to the idea has been pretty much overwhelmingly negative since the story broke in the Daily Mail on Wednesday evening.

So what are the chances of it actually happening and what are the pros and cons associated with such a seismic move?

Rugby correspondent Simon Thomas surveys the plusses and minuses as the fury ferments.

Read more: The latest Six Nations breaking news and headlines

POSITIVES

Improved rugby standards

This is the one argument that is pretty hard to take issue with.

When it comes to the quality of the respective teams, South Africa are some distance ahead of Italy.

The Azzurri’s 33-0 defeat at home to England last Sunday was their 34th successive loss in the Six Nations.

During that barren run, which stretches back to 2015, their average losing margin has been 27.7 points.

In that same period, the Springboks have won the World Cup, the Rugby Championship and beaten the British & Irish Lions.

They are quite patently on a very different level.

What you would be doing is introducing a team that is likely to consistently compete for the Six Nations title in place of one that never has.

Italy have now lost 99 of their 112 Championship matches since joining the expanded event in 2000.

By any measure, it is a pretty wretched record.

South Africa would be much, much tougher opponents and increase the all-round standard and competitiveness of the tournament.

Financial benefit

From the moment, just under a year ago, when the Six Nations struck a deal with CVC, major change was always on the cards.

The private equity giant purchased a 14 per cent share in the tournament for £365m, with some £50m of that fee going to the Welsh Rugby Union.

CVC are an investment company and will want a return on their investment and that means maximising the commercial revenue from the competition.

The reports are they are a driving force behind promoting talks aimed at seeing South Africa join the Six Nations.

They are said to believe significant commercial gains can only be achieved only by such fundamental upheaval and reform.

Presumably, they are confident that introducing the Springboks would see a sizeable increase in TV and sponsorship income, along with sold-out stadia.

The precedent is already there in terms of the additional revenue - some £10m - that has been generated through the four South African Super Rugby sides joining the United Rugby Championship.

You are talking real commercial clout when it comes to the Rainbow Nation, which has contributed hugely to the economics of the Sanzaar (SA, New Zealand, Australia and Argentina) alliance over the years.

So you can see the way CVC are thinking.

When their investment was confirmed last March, their mission statement talked about attracting a more diverse and global fan base, plus building “broader commercial capabilities”.

Turning to South Africa would appear to tick those boxes.

But it’s not just CVC who have a vested interest in bringing in more money.

The same goes for the Six Nations countries.

They have done a deal that sees a chunk of the tournament’s annual commercial revenue now going to CVC.

So they need to see overall income increase to offset the new arrangement and make it worth their while.

There’s also the factor that pro rugby is badly in need of more revenue, particularly so following huge Covid-related losses.

Nowhere is that more so than in Wales, where the four regions are desperate for greater investment.

So if it could be shown that bringing the ‘Boks on board would mean the tournament bringing in much more cash, that would be a pretty compelling argument for those tasked with balancing the books.

If both CVC and the game’s authorities decide it is the best means of maximising revenue, then you can certainly see it becoming the direction of travel.

Logical progression

Once the South African Rugby Union pulled its top teams out of Super Rugby to compete in Europe instead, the writing was on the wall.

You just felt the decision to enter the Bulls, Stormers, Sharks and Lions in an expanded PRO14 - now the URC - would be a stepping stone to bigger things.

That’s already proved to be the case with the teams becoming eligible to qualify for next season’s Champions Cup.

Now the Six Nations is the next obvious frontier.

The process of South African rugby aligning itself with the northern hemisphere is well underway.

Competing against teams from the same time zone has clear logistical benefits and they appear to see it as their way forward.

Even though they have committed to the annual Rugby Championship, alongside New Zealand, Australia and Argentina, for three more years, the word is that they still favour joining the Six Nations in the long-term.

The reports are that talks are continuing about them entering Europe’s showpiece tournament from 2025.

NEGATIVES

The damage to Italian rugby

Losing their place in the Six Nations would be an absolute body blow for the game in Italy.

It would have devastating financial implications and it would be hard to see them being able to sustain their two professional teams - Benetton and Zebre.

You couldn’t see there being any way back to the top table for them.

It would sound the death knell for Italian pro rugby and the game may well never recover in the country.

All the efforts that have gone into building and developing the sport over the past 25 years would come to nought.

This threat comes at the very time when there are promising signs for the future, with Italy’s U20s have beaten England 6-0 last weekend.

That follows their U18s defeating their English counterparts at Millfield School last August.

So the shoots are there. Ditching the Azzurri would see those shoots trampled underfoot.

It took decades for France to become competitive after they joined to make it the Five Nations in 1910, not winning the tournament outright until 1959.

Does another team in blue now need to be given more time?

The other Six Nations countries would have to ask themselves serious questions over whether they can morally justify abandoning Italian rugby.

Moreover, it would be a case of narrowing the base of the game when there is actually a strong argument for widening it.

The Rome trip

Since Italy joined the expanded Six Nations in 2000, the bi-annual journey to the Eternal City has become hugely popular with fans from the other countries.

It’s a different kind of trip to those to Dublin, Paris, Edinburgh, Cardiff or London.

Rome has so much to offer in terms of history and grandeur.

Fans have often tended to arrange extended stays around the rugby, enabling them to take in all the sights, along with the game itself.

Plus, it can be a lot easier to secure tickets for the Italian matches than for other Championship fixtures.

Many supporters have come to love the Rome weekend and would be sad to see it go.

People might say you could still visit the city, but it wouldn’t be the same all-round experience, removed from the rugby.

Realistically, it would mean one less away trip option for most fans.

With all the will in the world, heading for Johannesburg, Durban or Cape Town for the weekend just isn’t as practical, either financially or logistically.

Closed shop

The outpouring of support for Italy over the past 24 hours does have to be put in a bit context.

There were a fair few people questioning their position in the tournament following them going down to yet another defeat at the weekend.

But what is generally called for is some sort of promotion and relegation system, maybe via a play-off, where other European teams, such as Georgia, could have the chance to take Italy’s place.

People are not comfortable with the Azzurri simply being ditched once and for all, with no chance of them - or any other country - coming on board in future, amid a newly closed shop.

The feeling of many is that would be detrimental to the growth of the game.

The European element

Among the arguments against introducing South Africa, a number of people have pointed to the fact that the Six Nations is a Europe-only competition and should remain that way.

It is the annual means of crowning the continent’s rugby champions and bringing the ‘Boks on board would clearly change that dynamic.

There’s also the question of how it would impact upon the autumn internationals.

South Africa are regular visitors to Europe come November time, but would those games lose their appeal if they were involved in the Championship every season?

Take them out of the equation and the autumn programme might look rather threadbare and monotonous.

This news also comes at a time when the idea of a top tier 12-team Nations Championship competition, with six countries from either hemisphere, is going back on the table.

Similarly, what would be the impact on the Lions?

Would visiting the Rainbow Nation every 12 years still work as a viable and uniquely different enterprise if the countries that make up the Lions were to face the ‘Boks every season in the Six Nations?

What about the Rugby Championship?

We know that tournament is secured through until 2025, but what happens if South Africa then head to Europe’s elite event?

Would they still compete in the Rugby Championship alongside New Zealand, Australia and Argentina or would that be too much of an ask on top of the Six Nations?

If they dropped out, where would that leave the other countries, with the ‘Boks playing a big part in driving commercial revenues for Sanzaar?

It could see them facing very uncertain times.

Public reaction

It’s fair to say the reaction to the mooted change has been hugely negative so far.

The majority of the public don’t like the idea one little bit for a variety of the reasons outlined above.

Now that doesn’t necessarily mean it won’t happen, especially if the commercial case is a really strong one.

But we have already seen evidence of the Six Nations being pretty sensitive to public opinion.

That was demonstrated over the question of the tournament going behind a TV paywall.

There was a huge outcry at the suggestion and, despite it potentially bringing in more money, it was ditched, with a new terrestrial deal being struck.

So while some may say the powers-that-be never listen to the public, that isn’t always the case.

Is the change practical?

There is, of course, one pretty significant final factor to consider.

Italy are shareholders of the Six Nations and they are unlikely to vote for their own demise.

So would it be possible for the other countries to force through the Springboks replacing the Azzurri?

That could well be one for the lawyers, but there are clearly major hurdles that would have to be considered.

One can only ponder on what kind of feedback South African Rugby have so far received from the Six Nations over their desire to come on board and why the story has now entered the public domain.

Having them join via increasing to seven teams would be another option, but clearly that would mean extending the length of the tournament and clubs being without their star players for even more of the season.

So lots to discuss and debate.

We all wait to see just what the future will hold.

To get the latest rugby news and analysis delivered straight to your inbox, you can sign up for our Welsh rugby newsletter.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.