British politics for the next year should be conducted not from Westminster but from Scotland. Since the Scottish National party leadership imploded this month, its once rock-solid support has collapsed. A recent poll suggests that the SNP’s cohort of MPs will plummet at a 2024 election from 45 to 21. The beneficiary could well be Labour, surging from one MP to 26.
Sceptics have begun casting doubt on Keir Starmer’s ostensibly safe 17-point poll lead for Labour. They recall a similar “unbeatable” Labour lead in 1992, when the Tories went on to win. Starmer currently needs 124 new MPs for an overall majority. Forecasts offer him 117 switching from the Tories in England and Wales, while a similar swing in Scotland would offer perhaps six to eight seats to Labour. This is barely enough, and the odds are on a hung parliament. Labour needs those 26 seats in Scotland, and desperately so.
