The heater is over. For the first time since Super Bowl 56, our Rhode Island Scumbag had a bad week.
Granted, that only dropped his NFL record down to 6-3-1 on the season, but the man is feeling the frustration of having an epic run snapped, in large part, by Joe Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo and Davis Mills. How can I tell? Well, he began this week’s betting tips/series of lectures comprised mostly of insults at my expense with a quote from our high school’s athletic director.
“In the words of the legendary Rhode Island High School Football Coach Dom Marcone: ‘If it were easy, everyone would do it.'”
OH WE’RE *STARTING* HERE???
I have issues with at least 85 percent of that opening line. Ol’ Dom, a man who won roughly 25 percent of his games as a high school football coach in the talent-rich plains of Warwick, Rhode Island was in no way “legendary.” That quote is most notably attributed the hit Tom Hanks-Geena Davis vehicle A League of Their Own (and roughly a thousand other sources) rather than the administrator who prioritized his golf game over his students. Plus, I’m 80 percent certain Marcone wasn’t even the head coach by the time the RIS was playing varsity football.
So, we’re off to a great start. Our Scumbag friend is still destroying my bets this year. Let’s see what he’s got to say.
First, a breakdown on what we learned from last week's 0-2-1 record
Betting sports is a grind. There are weeks when you feel like everything is working against you. All you can do is be honest with yourself and your handicapping system.
I will take the heat on two of my picks; the New York Jets are a terrible organization and I backed them. That’s on me.
I laid points on the road with the 49ers; something I chastised my boy Christian for last week when he laid it with the very same San Francisco team in Week 1.
However, I will not back down from my Houston Texans pick. The Texans were the better team, they had more chances to win the football game and they went ahead and squandered just about every one of them. That is honest handicapping. If you keep making the right bets, they will eventually pay off.
I pointed out a system last week that went 5-1; divisional matchups going under the Vegas total. Those plays easily went fell short of the total with the lone exception being the Lions who forgot to cover a guy in the fourth quarter. That is what can drive the unseasoned sports bettor crazy. To know that you were aware of a system … aware that there were six games that matched the system … and you look at your wager history and don’t have a single dollar on any of the games. Instead, you’re on your knees in front of your TV begging for Joe Flacco to lead his team to a backdoor cover.
Yeah, this racket ain’t for the faint of heart.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part I: Atlanta Falcons (+3, if the line gets back there) vs. the Cleveland Browns
I will introduce (and actually play) another system today. Home underdogs coming off a straight-up win as a road underdog.
My boy Chinz [Ed. note: that’s me, I used to be a chubby little guy, carry on] played this system (I’m guessing unknowingly since he didn’t reference it in his write up) with Pittsburgh in Week 2. They were +3 at home vs. New England after beating Cincinnati as a six-point dog in Cincy. This system is obviously not automatic (it’s actually 0-1-1 this season), but I do find it to be a reliable spot for handicapping the NFL.
I also use it in NCAA hoops. I have to credit fellow Rhode Island Scumbag “the Schnizz” for teaching me this valuable handicapping strategy [Ed. note: Stop. Referencing. People. No. Normal. Person. Knows].
After going winless in week 2, I’m going to lean on my system plays. Take Atlanta +3 at home vs the Browns. If you can’t get the 3, play it with the Falcons +8/New England +16.5.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part II: Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts first half UNDER 21.5 points
The rest of the plays will be based on divisional opponents and Vegas totals. I often like playing unders in the first half because defenses are fresh, coaches haven’t been able to get to the whiteboard at halftime and scheme against what the opposition is doing and there are no late-game shenanigans to deal with.
The Scumbag Lock of the Week, part III: Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys first half total UNDER 21 points
See above.
Scumbag locks last week: 0-2-1 (.167)
Scumbag locks year to date: 6-3-1 (.650)
My non-scumbag locks: Arizona Cardinals (+2) over the Carolina Panthers and Giants-Bears UNDER 39.5
I bet on Kliff Kingsbury last week, hoping his early season magic would pay off. Nope! The Cardinals may just be a bad team year-round in 2022.
And yet, here we are, laying cash to ride this roller coaster of disappointment all over again. I’m not the only one: per NFL Pickwatch 75 percent of expert straight-up picks have tabbed Arizona to win.
There’s a chance this all backfires;. Carolina has flipped from a +2.5 underdog to favorite with relative quickness. Is it a lack of faith in a passing offense that may be without A.J. Green? Or a reflection on a team that scored zero touchdowns last week while fielding the league’s 31st-ranked defense?
Either way, I’m headed back into the breach with Kyler Murray, who hasn’t been especially good this season but remains significantly better than Baker Mayfield.
Give me Bears-Giants UNDER 39.5 as well, since it feels like we’re headed toward a Big Ten-type matchup with roughly 80 handoffs in 60 minutes of play.
Non-Scumbag lock last week: 0-1 (.000)
Non-Scumbag locks year to date: 1-3-1 (.300)
