Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI fantasy football series focused on vacated volume and projecting how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re looking at the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
- The Replacements: Houston Texans
The Panthers underwent a top-down offensive makeover in the offseason.
It began with the hire of coach Frank Reich, got really interesting when they traded for the No. 1 pick in March and continued with a flurry of free-agent signings soon after. The cherry on top, of course, was the eventual selection of quarterback Bryce Young first overall in the draft.
Carolina grew tired of its revolving door of stopgap quarterbacks post-Cam Newton, an issue Reich dealt with in Indianapolis in the years following Andrew Luck’s retirement. Young, a former Heisman Trophy winner at Alabama, was deemed the answer under center.
DJ Moore, the team’s leading receiver four years running, was sent to the Bears in the deal that netted the Panthers the No. 1 pick. Dual-threat running back Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers last October. With Carolina’s top two offensive weapons gone, the front office spent the offseason shuffling the skill position players around its quarterback of the future.
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That meant signing receivers Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark, tight end Hayden Hurst and running back Miles Sanders in free agency and spending its second-round pick on receiver Jonathan Mingo to essentially put together an entirely new group of pass-catchers.
The team’s top returning receiver is Terrace Marshall Jr., a 2021 second-round pick, whose 47 targets were the second-most on the team after Moore. The Panthers attempted the fourth-fewest passes in the NFL last season (457), though the departure of two of their three most-targeted players opens up plenty of opportunity for the newcomers.
Carolina ranks seventh in the NFL in total vacated targets (212) but second in percentage of vacated targets (49.6%), per 4for4.com. Nearly half of the team’s targets from 2022 are there for the taking. Reich’s Colts teams were typically near the bottom of the league in passing rate, so there might not be a noticeable bump in the number of attempts, though targets from Young should prove to be more valuable than those from the trio of Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and PJ Walker.
The Panthers have an outside shot at competing for the NFC South title this season with a win total set at 7.5. The path there may rely more on their defense and ground game than a high-flying passing offense, though. Still, with so many targets available, one or more of Carolina’s new players could carve out a role that gives them fantasy value with Young under center.
These are the candidates to absorb the vacated volume available in the Panthers’ offense in 2023.
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Adam Thielen
Carolina inked Thielen, who’s entering his age-33 season and 10th year in the NFL, to a three-year deal after his release in March. His last 1,000-yard season was in 2018, but he’s been a suitable second option to Justin Jefferson the last three seasons in Minnesota.
Thielen continues to provide immense value in the touchdown department — his 45 receiving scores since 2018 have him tied with Tyler Lockett for the fifth-most in the league. He has stayed relatively healthy throughout his career and just played a full 17-game season. Thielen caught 70 of 107 targets for 716 yards and six touchdowns last year in the Vikings’ high-volume passing offense.
Thielen has turned in top-30 WR finishes the last two seasons, but it’s difficult to see him replicating those numbers in an offense that passes so much less than Minnesota, even if he is a primary option for Young. He’ll be a steadying veteran presence in the receiver room and could continue to do damage in the red zone, though not with enough regularity to be relied upon week-to-week.
D.J. Chark
Chark has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career. He’s never played a full season and he missed six games in 2022 with the Lions and 13 the year before for the Jaguars. When Chark is healthy, he’s a field-stretching deep threat who averages 14.4 yards per catch for his career. He put together a 1,000-yard, eight-touchdown season for Jacksonville in 2019, which was enough for a top-20 WR finish. (It’s worth noting that rookie Gardner Minshew was his quarterback that year.)
Chark, who is on a one-year deal, might be the most one-to-one replacement for Moore in terms of his role in the offense. He’s also the tallest receiver in the room at 6’4”. Chark is sure to have some boom weeks and could command a fair share of targets should he play the bulk of the season, but he should be viewed as no more than a best-ball target or occasional spot start for the time being.
Hayden Hurst
The last Panthers tight end to finish with more than 200 yards in a season was Greg Olsen in 2019. The position has been a wasteland in recent years and the front office tried to address that by bringing in Hurst, who just had the second-best season of his career in Cincinnati, to start over Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble.
Hurst snagged 52 of 68 targets for 414 yards and two touchdowns across 13 games with the Bengals. His career-best campaign was 56 catches, 571 yards and six touchdowns for the Falcons in 2020, which put him at TE9.
Tight ends were a key part of the offenses Reich ran in Indianapolis, so Hurst should have an opportunity to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-70 targets. His average yards per catch has decreased each year of his career, so finding the end zone is his best shot at outperforming his current ADP and providing value for fantasy managers.
Jim Dedmon/USA Today Sports
Jonathan Mingo
Mingo shined as a senior at Ole Miss, when he caught 51 passes for 861 yards and five scores. A large chunk of that production came in a single game against Vanderbilt when he exploded for nine catches, 247 yards and two touchdowns. His athletic profile is especially enticing; the 6’2”, 225-pound power slot ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. At pick No. 39, he was the fourth wide receiver drafted.
He may have to fight for snaps early on, but Mingo could emerge late in the season as some rookie wide receivers tend to do. The sooner he works his way onto the field and begins developing a connection with Young, who he played against in the SEC, the better.
Marshall, Carolina’s last second-round investment at the position, has not lived up to his draft capital so far with just 45 catches and 628 yards across two seasons. The optimistic case for Mingo is that he’s in the neighborhood of those numbers in Year 1.
Other Receivers
Young’s favorite target in his final season at Alabama was running back Jahmyr Gibbs, who he connected with a team-high 44 times. If Sanders can get back up into the 40-catch range, it would do wonders for his fantasy value. He’s coming off a career-best campaign as a rusher but his involvement in the passing game has declined each year.
Sanders caught 50 of 63 targets and gained 500 yards through the air as a rookie and has yet to top 30 catches or 200 receiving yards in a season since. Checkdowns could skyrocket Sanders’ fantasy value and Reich made sure Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines were both involved in the passing game in Indianapolis. Sanders also won’t have to worry about Chuba Hubbard, who has 39 career catches in 32 games, stealing receiving work.
Marshall’s sophomore season was much better than his rookie year as he ripped off plenty of big plays. More than a third of his catches went for 20 or more yards and he averaged 17.5 yards per reception. He’ll have to see an appreciable bump in volume or find his way into the end zone more often to make much of a fantasy impact in Year 3.
Summary
It’s possible that Sanders steps in and vacuums up a decent chunk of the vacated targets in Carolina. If you’re expecting a McCaffrey-esque role, you’ll likely be disappointed. But 35 or more catches for around 300 yards would be a boon for Sanders, and Young for that matter if he has a reliable safety net to dump off to early in his career. Other than Sanders, taking a shot on Mingo and letting him sit on your bench until he shows proof of concept is an investment that could pay dividends. None of the other receivers are particularly exciting.
