Editor’s Note: Welcome to the second annual installment of “The Replacements,” an SI fantasy football series focused on vacated volume and projecting how teams will replace production year-to-year. This offseason, we’re looking at the six teams with the highest percentage of available targets and the six teams with the highest percentage of available carries heading into 2023.
- The Replacements: Houston Texans | Carolina Panthers
The Lions assembled one of the most efficient passing attacks in the NFL last season and the key components — quarterback Jared Goff, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — are all back for another season in the Motor City.
Detroit’s passing DVOA improved from 28th in 2021 to fifth in 2022 and its scoring average increased by more than a full touchdown as a result. Goff enjoyed one of the best years of his career but, beyond St. Brown, he’ll have a noticeably different supporting cast around him this fall.
Running back D’Andre Swift was dealt to the Eagles during draft weekend, tight end T.J. Hockenson was traded to the Vikings at the deadline in November and receiver D.J. Chark signed with the Panthers in the offseason. All in all, the Lions are losing 227 targets, the fourth-most in the NFL, according to 4for4.com. That accounts for 40.3% of their total targets, the sixth-highest percentage of vacated targets in the league.
St. Brown, the team’s top receiver two years running, returns to a unit that was bolstered by the selection of running back Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall and tight end Sam LaPorta in the second round along with the free-agent addition of Marvin Jones Jr., a veteran receiver who played in Detroit from 2016-20. Injury sidelined receiver Jameson Williams for the first 11 games of 2022 and he’s set to start his sophomore season late as well due to a six-game suspension.
The Lions were in the bottom half of the league in passing percentage (56%) but still finished 10th in total passing attempts (588) as their dreadful defense allowed opponents to stay in games, which made for some high-scoring shootouts. Detroit is the betting favorite to win the NFC North (+130) and its win total is set at 9.5 with heavy juice on the over. The overwhelming expectation is that this is the year Dan Campbell’s squad breaks through to the postseason.
Even if the Lions defense is better, their offense, anchored by one of the best offensive lines in the league, is still their biggest strength — and it should be a fruitful one for fantasy football purposes.
These are the players who Detroit’s vacated targets will be funneled to in 2023.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown earned a Pro Bowl nod last year after he hauled in 106 catches on 146 targets for 1,161 yards, all top-11 marks. He hit those numbers in 16 games on his way to a WR7 finish, a fitting follow-up to his rookie campaign, which saw the former fourth-round pick emerge as the Lions’ lead receiver.
St. Brown has become Goff’s unquestioned top target and his 24.8% target share in 2022 was the 11th-highest mark in the league. If anything, the departure of Swift, Chark and Hockenson could open up even more targets for St. Brown. The receiver saw his average depth of target fall from 7.1 as a rookie to 6.3 last season, though his yards per catch improved from 10.1 to 11.
Volume is king, especially in PPR leagues, and St. Brown was one of only nine players to hit triple-digit receptions a year ago. It would be a boon to reach that mark again but a bump in touchdown production would also go a long way. Jamaal Williams’s 57 carries in the red zone led the league while St. Brown’s 21 red-zone targets were tied for ninth-most. Considering all of St. Brown’s touchdowns came inside the 20-yard line, a few more looks down there with Williams gone could be enough for him to see an uptick in the scoring department.
St. Brown’s outlook is extremely promising as he enters 2023 with a clear path to another top-12 finish and a shot at eclipsing 150 targets.
Jahmyr Gibbs
Gibbs will have to catch plenty of passes in order to justify his draft capital. But while the selection was surprising, there’s no doubt he’s a top-end talent out of the backfield. After two years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs made the move to Alabama and enjoyed the finest season of his college career in the SEC. His rushing numbers — 151 carries, 926 yards, seven touchdowns — were all career-bests and he was extremely involved as a receiver: his 44 receptions led the team.
It didn’t take long after the Gibbs pick for Detroit to send Swift to Philadelphia and it seems as if he will inherit all of the former pass-catching back’s work, and then some. Swift never played a full season but his career averages extrapolated over a 17-game pace put him in line for north of 150 carries and 65 receptions. Gibbs should be penciled in for 200-plus touches easily and even catching 50 passes would put him in rare air at his position — only 11 running backs caught that many balls in 2022.
The Lions ranked just outside the top 10 in targets to running backs (115) last season — just over 20% of their total targets. With the addition of Gibbs and, to a lesser extent, Montgomery, that number should rise this coming year.
Jameson Williams
Williams’s recovery from an ACL tear he suffered in the 2022 College Football Playoff National Championship ultimately pushed his NFL debut back to December. He only appeared in six games as a rookie and tallied just two touches. But the burst that vaulted him to the 12th pick in the draft was on full display in both — one a 41-yard touchdown catch, the other a 40-yard run.
His sophomore season will get off to a late start as well, though for different reasons. Williams was suspended for six games for betting on non-NFL games while at the team facility, which is a violation of the league’s gambling policy. When he does eventually return, Williams should assume the WR2 role in the offense. There’s a clear opening available considering Khalif Raymond’s 64 targets were the second-most for a wide receiver after St. Brown.
In one season at Alabama, Williams exploded for 79 catches for 1,572 yards and 15 touchdowns while playing with Bryce Young. He averaged just under 20 yards per catch on his way to first-team All-America honors. The Lions’ offense will undoubtedly benefit from having a bonafide speedster lined up outside once Williams rejoins the team for Week 7. And as he showed with the Crimson Tide, he doesn’t need a ton of volume to rack up big numbers.
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Sam LaPorta
Tight end was a key component of Detroit’s offense before Hockenson was dealt at the deadline. The front office filled that hole by drafting another Hawkeye early in the second round. LaPorta caught more than 50 passes for at least 650 yards in each of his final two seasons at Iowa and impressed at the combine with a 4.59 40-yard dash.
The rookie will have to contend with Brock Wright for snaps early on in the year but he should play his way onto the field as the season progresses. High-end volume may be lacking as rookie tight ends don’t have a sterling record of immediate production but he has a shot to contribute in the red zone. Wright, Hockenson, Shane Zylstra and James Mitchell combined for 12 of the Lions’ 29 receiving touchdowns despite being tied for the sixth-fewest targets (93) as a position group.
With Williams’s suspension sidelining him for September and much of October, LaPorta has a shot to emerge as Goff’s third option, at least temporarily, after St. Brown and Gibbs.
Other Receivers
There are three other Detroit receivers who have a shot to make a fantasy impact this season even though it might be more likely that they simply cancel one another out.
Jones is back after a two-year stint in Jacksonville. He’s entering his age-33 season but he’s just two years removed from leading the Lions in every receiving category in 2020 when Matthew Stafford was under center. Jones flashed with a seven-catch, 100-yard outing last September but his 529 yards on the year were his fewest since 2019.
Raymond may have the most upside of the receivers not named St. Brown or Williams. His 616 yards in 2022 were a career high and second on the team and he finished the year strong with four straight games of 40-plus yards. Raymond didn’t find the end zone on any of his 54 touches but positive regression in the touchdown department could be on the way.
Then there’s Josh Reynolds, who’s the most familiar with Goff from their time in L.A. together and now two seasons in Detroit. He was fourth on the team in receptions, targets, receiving yards and tied for fourth in touchdowns a season ago. However, Reynolds has only broken 500 yards in a season once.
Summary
St. Brown is clearly the Lions pass-catcher to target. At WR9, you may have to pay a premium to get him but he’s proven to be well worth his cost through two seasons. Gibbs’s potential pass-catching work also makes him an intriguing pick but his draft cost could rightfully scare some managers off — he’s up to RB13, ahead of Travis Etienne Jr.
The biggest value here seems to be Williams, who’s going just inside the top 100. Since it’s a suspension not an injury keeping him out, he will be occupying a roster spot but he could pay dividends upon his return. Reynolds, Raymond and Jones profile as affordable DFS options on a given week, especially while Williams is suspended, but it’s unlikely they offer anything more. As for LaPorta, Michael Fabiano dubbed him a sleeper and said he’s worth a late-round pick.
