Death, taxes, and arguing over whether or not the 49ers have an elite quarterback.
The latter seems to be more of a guarantee than either of the former in recent years, and that debate has heated up over the last 36 hours. Once again, the San Francisco 49ers are in the NFC Championship Game and, once again, there are two camps pointing pitchforks at one another.
The 49ers defeated the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs, and the lackluster play of Purdy for the first 55 minutes of the game was quite the talking point. He looked flustered from the rain, he underthrew several passes, and had three loaves of bread luckily fall to the ground after they could have been picked off. PFF agrees that Purdy played poorly, giving him a passing grade of 55. Overall, Purdy went 23-of-39 (59 percent completions) for 252 yards and one touchdown.
On top of that, luck has seemed to be Purdy’s super power this season. Despite being tied for fifth in the league in turnover worthy plays, Purdy finished with just 11 interceptions. He puts the ball in harms way almost as much as any quarterback in the league, and somehow keeps getting away with it unscathed more often than not.
Now, looking at the season as a whole through a purely statistical lens, you look you would think that Brock Purdy is a Decepticon at quarterback. He finished 2023 fifth in passing yards, third in touchdowns, and atop the league in touchdown percentage. He also led the NFL in passing success percentage, passer rating, and QBR. Advanced metrics show Purdy in the brightest of lights, as well. He led the NFL in EPA per play, adjusted EPA per play, and EPA + CPOE composite. Both raw and advanced stats show that Purdy was playing like a God. But, of course, there is more to the story.
The 49ers had three players in the NFL finish in the top 25 in yards after catch- no other team had more than two. The likes of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey combined for 1,471 yards after catch, which comes back to the scheming and play-calling of Kyle Shanahan who is better than anyone in the league at scheming guys open. This isn’t to say that Purdy didn’t make any tough throws this season- he finished eighth in big time throws, per PFF- but there is a lot more to say for someone like Jordan Love who was second in the NFL in touchdowns when all of his receivers and tight ends were rookies or second year players than Purdy, who is surrounded by All-Pros and metaphorically has the answers to the test.
It would also be easier to give Purdy more credit if we hadn’t seen this exact thing happen before. From 2019-2022, Jimmy Garoppolo was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. Over that time span, Garoppolo was third in the NFL in EPA per play (min. 500 plays), trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees. What happened immediately after Garoppolo left the 49ers? He fell off a cliff. Amongst 41 quarterbacks to take at least 200 snaps this season, Garoppolo was 32nd in EPA per play and benched for rookie Aidan O’Connell as soon as Josh McDaniels was fired.
The 49ers’ offense doesn’t run through Purdy, the same way it didn’t run through Garoppolo. It runs through Christian McCaffrey, who led the NFL in rushing and is the absolute nucleus of the offense, and Deebo Samuel. And honestly, Samuel may be even more important, schematically, than McCaffrey. Yes, the acquisition of McCaffrey took San Francisco to a whole new level offensively, but the numbers with Samuel on the field compared to the numbers without him are staggering.
Per Sports Info Solutions, the 49ers have an EPA per dropback of 0.26 with Samuel on the field, which is the best in the NFL. Without him, though, they drop to a 0.06, which takes them down to 14th in the league. Rushing wise is no different. The 49ers have an EPA per rush of 0.09 with Samuel on the field, which is the best in the league. They drop to a -0.05 without Samuel on the field. The best rushing attack in the NFL by a comfortable margin to a negative EPA- that is the difference Samuel makes. His versatility, and usage, in both the run and pass games is what makes the 49ers’ offense go. When teams don’t have to account for No. 19, they can focus in on slowing down McCaffrey in the run game and make the 49ers beat them through the air.
None of this is to push any sort of anti-Brock Purdy agenda. People always confuse being realistic with being hateful. Purdy is a fine quarterback, but he’s a “win with” not a “win because of.” The 49ers made it to two NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl with his predecessor, and they find themselves in that same spot again with him. Now, Purdy is better than Garoppolo, especially when it comes to the deep passing game- his deep passing accuracy percentage was fourth amongst quarterbacks with at least 20 deep balls.
That said, it’s okay to say he is a fine quarterback who is masterfully executing a well-oiled machine without getting hyperbolic and saying he is elite. Are you taking him over Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Joe Burrow? Are you taking Purdy over Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, or Trevor Lawrence? I know I’m not.
Like most things in life, the debate of Purdy being elite has a truth that lies somewhere in the middle. He isn’t the second coming bestowed unto us from a higher power. However, he’s also not a guy who was pulled from the stands that was given a helmet and jersey before becoming a walking conduit for Kyle Shanahan like his harshest critics will say. He is much closer to being Jared Goff than he is Joe Montana.
Purdy isn’t the engine of this brand new pickup truck, he’s the hitch that attaches the truck to the trailer- vital to getting to where you need to go, and having a reliable one takes away a lot of stress, but ultimately not the most important piece.
