Nottingham Forest could secure their highest Championship finish for more than a decade when they take on Hull City this weekend.
The Reds are already guaranteed a place in the play-offs, and they will finish either third or fourth in the table regardless of what happens in the final round of league fixtures. But should they finish third, it would match their position from the 2009/10 campaign.
And if they record a victory over the Tigers, it would take Steve Cooper’s side up to 82 points - the club’s highest points total in the second tier since 1998, when they were promoted as champions with 94. Ending the regular season well is very much the manager’s aim.
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But how much does it matter when it comes to the play-offs? We’ve had a look at who went up via that method in the last 15 years, and where they finished in the table…
2020/21 - Brentford, finished 3rd
2019/20 - Fulham, finished 4th
2018/19 - Aston Villa, finished 5th
2017/18 - Fulham, finished 3rd
2016/17 - Huddersfield Town, finished 5th
2015/16 - Hull City, finished 4th
2014/15 - Norwich City, finished 3rd
2013/14 - QPR, finished 4th
2012/13 - Crystal Palace, finished 5th
2011/12 - West Ham, finished 3rd
2010/11 - Swansea City, finished 3rd
2009/10 - Blackpool, finished 6th
2008/09 - Burnley, finished 5th
2007/08 - Hull City, finished 3rd
2006/07 - Derby County, finished 3rd
Third place has yielded the most play-offs winners, with seven; fifth place has also been pretty successful, with four. One team who finished sixth has gone up, while three who came fourth triumphed.
When it comes to form going into the play-offs, it’s a pretty mixed bag looking at those who triumphed. The outcomes of the last five league games for the play-offs winners in the past 15 years are listed below.
2020/21 Brentford (3rd) - DWWWW
2019/20 Fulham (4th) - WWDWD
2018/19 Aston Villa (5th) - WWWDL
2017/18 Fulham (3rd) - WDWWL
2016/17 Huddersfield Town (5th) - DLWLL
2015/16 Hull City (4th) - WDWLW
2014/15 Norwich City (3rd) - WWLDW
2013/14 QPR (4th) - WLWDW
2012/13 Crystal Palace (5th) - LDDDW
2011/12 West Ham (3rd) - DWDWW
2010/11 Swansea City (3rd) - LDWWW
2009/10 Blackpool (6th) - WLWWD
2008/09 Burnley (5th) - WLWDW
2007/08 Hull City (3rd) - DWLWL
2006/07 Derby County (3rd) - DLWLW
Cooper has made it clear he wants to end the regular campaign strongly. And Reds defender Steve Cook, who is unlikely to be involved against Hull, said of his play-offs experience with Bournemouth last year: “We made the play-offs with two or three games in hand, and we ended up losing the last three. You’re then kind of thinking, did that harm us?
“You want to go into games confident and flying, not having any doubts. That experience I had last year, hopefully I can use this year with this group of players.”
Of course, the play-offs aren’t referred to as a “lottery” for nothing. Stats and history will count for little when Forest mount one last push for promotion.
