Attack wins you games; defence wins you titles. So said Sir Alex Ferguson, a man who knew a thing or two about claiming championships.
He also coined the term ‘squeaky bum time’. It’s that part of the season again, and for Newcastle United, after two games without a victory as the campaign draws to a close, it’s certainly getting twitchy.
They’re not going for a title - that’s Man City’s this season once more - but for where they are in their own development, the Magpies are chasing just as big a prize. No one would have given them a prayer of finishing in the Champions League qualification spots at the end of the season but here we are, three games to go, and Eddie Howe’s men sit in the box seat, ahead of Manchester United and Liverpool but with the duo breathing down their neck.
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It could have been a stronger position (of course, it could have also been a lot worse). A minor stumble of late, with 10 points from the last 18 on offer, has seen the gap close and with two rivals experienced and adept in these types of scenarios chasing hard, only a point separates Newcastle in third and Liverpool in fifth.
Jurgen Klopp’s side made it seven wins on the bounce on Monday night with a 3-0 win over Leicester City. It was also their third clean sheet in a row. Man United have had two cleans sheets in their last four games. In contrast, whereas Newcastle were being hailed as a mean machine earlier in the season, they have now shut out the opposition just once in their last 17 matches.
A reset is needed. Howe needs to rediscover the touch that made the Magpies hard to break down, that saw them keep clean sheets at Old Trafford and the Emirates, and against Brighton at the start of the campaign.
Since that game, Albion have changed managers, with Italian Roberto De Zerbi now occupying the hotseat. Brighton still play an attractive brand of football, as they did under Graham Potter, but it now has more of a cutting edge and means Newcastle will have to be at their resilient, defensive best to get the three points so vital to their Champions League bid. Equally, it may need a change in approach.
Brighton’s philosophy under De Zerbi is a slow, patient build-up via the two central defenders, followed by quick, vertical passing that breaks the lines and releases their vast array of No 10s and flying wingers, particularly Kaoru Mitoma.
In possession, the Seagulls are happy to rotate the ball in their own third between their two centre-halves, usually Lewis Dunk and Adam Webster, and the two base midfielders, a combination of Moses Caicedo, Billy Gilmour, Pascal Gross and Alexis Mac Allister.
The centre-halves almost toy with the opposition, taunting and teasing them, daring them to press the ball and free up passing lanes which they can exploit. Brighton, under De Zerbi, encourage a high-wire possession tightrope style of football, all risk or reward. Get it right, which they regularly do, and they suddenly can have four or five attackers breaking on your back four. Get it wrong, and they are susceptible to counter-attacks.
That has been no more evident than in three of their last four games - a 6-0 win over Wolves; a 5-1 defeat at home to Everton; and then ending Arsenal’s lingering title hopes by thumping them 3-0 at the Emirates. Risk or reward. Boom or bust.
On the occasions where their style of play hasn’t been as effective, the opposition have opted for a mid-block, flooding the midfield to deny any space for their rotation. Manchester United did it to good effect in the FA Cup semi-final and to a lesser effect in the Premier League game at the Amex which Brighton eventually won 1-0 with a 98th-minute penalty after a stupid handball by Luke Shaw. Everton, of course, also stopped the Brighton bandwagon just 10 days ago.
What both Man United and Everton had in common, tactically, was a patience to their press. Both sides opted for a 4-1-4-1 formation, with the lone striker (Anthony Martial in Man United’s case, Dominic Calvert-Lewin for the Toffees) instructed NOT to press but rather to let Dunk and Webster have the ball and instead close the passing lanes into the midfield. De Zerbi’s tactics is to provoke his opponents into over-committing, allowing his side to then break the press, get between the lines on a half-turn and either feed the ball out wide (often to Mitoma who is one on one with the full-back) or driving at the heart of the defence.
"They [Brighton] play a very particular way,” admitted Everton boss Sean Dyche after their game. “They create two boxes in the middle of the pitch. They pop it and slide it and look to play cleverly around the corners. We were very patient with it and sometimes that is difficult.”
For both Man United and Everton, the wide forwards or wingers tucked in narrow to block the route through to Brighton’s two forwards, who often drop deep to create a box in midfield. When that does happen, it poses a difficult question for the centre-half; does he follow the striker in or pass him on to the midfield. If it’s the former, like Luke Shaw against Danny Welbeck, he needs to be sure that his holding centre midfielder is there to cover behind him, as Casemiro did so well in the semi-final.
It’s a formation that requires plenty of drilling on the training field. While Newcastle have exciting wingers capable of causing havoc, they will need to be disciplined in their shape out of possession. The role of Bruno Guimareas may be more defensive than playmaker. Should Eddie Howe decide on a similar approach to Sean Dyche and Erik ten Hag, Joelinton may be the best option on the left of the attack with his ability to tuck into a defensive position, though Sean Longstaff’s injury may necessitate he starts in midfield. Likewise on the right side, Miguel Almiron's work ethic could be crucial in stopping Kieran Trippier being exposed to Mitoma's pace.
Where Everton came into their own was on the counter. Once they won back possession, they moved upfield with great speed and directness, targeting the area vacated by Brighton’s full-backs who either play high and wide or tuck into a central midfield position to try and create overloads. Dwight McNeill and Abdoulaye Doucoure profited in particular, driving into the open spaces to have a hand in all five goals.
"Everyone wants you to go and take the game on and sometimes people can think that you are not but you are,” Dyche said after the game. “You have just got to be patient and I think the patience, focus, and then the ability once you break to go and react on the transition, I think that was really pleasing for me and it was delivered so well in the first half."
At St James’s Park all season, Newcastle have been used to coming storming out of the blocks. Roared on by a fervorous home support, the intensity and ferocity of their play has at times blown sides away early on, as Spurs can attest.
On Thursday night, however, a more measured approach may be in order. Bide their time, be solid and then pounce.
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