SCOTLAND will have a new first minister by the end of Tuesday after the winner of the SNP leadership election is announced.
But the faces around the top decision-making table are likely to change with new leadership.
Party figures are playing their cards close to their chests when asked who might serve in the next Scottish cabinet under a new first minister.
One party insider told The National it was expected loyalty on the campaign trail would be rewarded regarless of the victor, with prominent backers either promoted within government or brought into the fold.
What happens if Kate Forbes wins?
Forbes has promised change within the party and government – signalling that she could see more radical changes at the top of the tree than Yousaf.
Her campaign has been run by Michelle Thomson, the MSP for Falkirk East and a former entrepreneur. She also serves on Holyrood’s finance committee and has genuine and unabashed enthusiasm for all things business and economics – something the SNP’s critics (both within and outwith the party) believe is too rare a quality among its ranks.
If Forbes’s campaign is following the principle of rewarding loyalty, it would be a safe bet to assume Thomson would get first refusal on the finance secretary job.
Other backers include backbencher Jim Fairlie and the current business minister Ivan McKee. Fairlie founded the campaign group Farmers4Yes and represents Perthshire South and Kinross-shire.
McKee was first out of the gates for Forbes but retreated somewhat as the campaign advanced though he remains one of her most prominent backers and the only member of the Scottish cabinet to have endorsed her for leader.
It could be the case Forbes will attempt to build bridges with Yousaf and give him and some of his campaign backers a role in government – but her barbed quip about keeping him away from health (his current job) may bear out in reality.
Forbes is also widely expected to benefit from Ash Regan’s second preference votes, especially among members critical of the Scottish Government’s controversial gender recognition reforms, which could see the former community safety minister return to government.
A key feature of a government under Forbes would be the role the Greens would play, if any. Some within the party say privately the Bute House Agreement would be dead in the water if she wins – but it will be put to a vote of the party’s ruling committee, meaning there is the possibility they would remain in government.
What happens if Humza Yousaf wins?
The Health Secretary has been working closely with Neil Gray – seen by some in the SNP as future first minister material – on his campaign.
Gray currently serves as a junior minister in the culture and external affairs department and takes on special responsibility for Ukrainian refugees. His boss in that department is Angus Robertson, who has also backed Yousaf, potentially hanging a question mark over that job.
Shona Robison, the Social Justice Secretary, met Yousaf on his last media stint of the election campaign.
She has been in government for 13 years in total and spent three years on the backbenches after standing down as health secretary after cancer waiting times hit a six-year high in 2018.
An SNP source confirmed Ian Blackford, who led the SNP in Westminster until early this year, would remain on in his current role of business ambassador for the party with a remit to help the Yes cause build links with the business world.
They added a Yousaf government would be “self-explanatory” – suggesting his other backers, including Education Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville, Rural Affairs Secretary Mairi Gougeon and Energy Secretary Michael Matheson could be expected to keep their jobs.
Forbes has previously said she would happily serve in a Yousaf government. While he might wish to keep her out of government, this could open the possibility of her being a prominent and influential government critic on the backbenches.
If her criticisms of Yousaf’s record during the STV debate were anything to go by, this could be something the Health Secretary would like to avoid.
What happens if Ash Regan wins?
Regan’s campaign has the most fully-sketched out cabinet plans of any candidate.
A spokesperson for Regan said Forbes and Yousaf would both be offered government roles and Justice Secretary Keith Brown would be given the chance to remain in the cabinet if he wished.
They added that Angela Constance would be the top pick for her current role as drugs minister and that Forbes’s campaign manager Thomson would also be offered a job.
And they said Kenneth Gibson, Forbes backer Fairlie and Graeme Dey would all be offered roles while offering Fergus Ewing and Fiona Hyslop jobs in government.
