Over the last few weeks, members of the two parties which hold power in the Senedd have backed major changes to the way it operates. More members, different constituencies and even quotas to ensure more women or people from diverse backgrounds are all on the table.
Labour won 30 seats in the Senedd elections in 2021, the most seats but not an overall majority, so in December the party signed a deal with Plaid Cymru, which won 13 seats, to work together in what is called a co-operation agreement which will last three years and see the two parties working together in set areas.
The official document which describes the terms of the agreement says: "Support plans to reform the Senedd, based on 80 to 100 Members; a voting system, which is as proportional – or more – than the current one and have gender quotas in law. We will support the work of the Senedd Special Purpose Committee and introduce a Senedd reform Bill 12 to 18 months after it reports."
Read more: What we learnt at the Plaid Cymru conference
Any plan to change the way the Senedd operates needs at least two thirds of the 60 Senedd members vote for it. That is 40 out of the 60. As Labour has 30 MSs and Plaid 13, the two parties have enough strength to do it - even if the Llywydd (speaker) Elin Jones (Plaid) and Deputy Llywydd David Rees (Labour) don't vote.
The Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies has been vocal about his opposition to the plans. But with only 16 seats, he would be powerless to stop the two other parties forcing through enlargement if they can come up with a proposal for how to do it that all their members support.
The only obstacle therefore appears to be their ability to come up with a plan that would deliver a larger Senedd, and come up with a system for electing it that will keep their parties and their current MSs happy by not making it harder for them to be re-elected.
Why does the voting system matter?
At the moment, 40 of Wales' MSs are elected in a traditional first-past-the-post constituency battle. The candidate with the most votes wins. A further 20 are elected by a system of proportional representation. The latter system benefits parties that don't always win enough votes in individual areas to get a lot of constituency seats but get a significant share of the overall vote.
Mark Drakeford's pledge has been that if the Senedd is enlarged, the method of election used will be "at least as proportional" as the current system. So a bit proportional. Any more than that would be unlikely to be popular with his party. In the last election in 2021, it won 50% the seats (30) with 38% of the vote. Five years earlier it won 48% of the seats (29) with just 33% of the vote.
Any system of election that tried to match the number of seats more closely with the share of the vote won across Wales would disadvantage both Labour and its current crop of Senedd Members. It is likely to make some of the more ambitious proposals for different electoral systems harder to get through the chamber.
However there will be a powerful push for a change. The Expert Panel report on Assembly Electoral Reform, led by Professor Laura McAllister, was published on December 12, 2017. It argued that reform of how MSs were elected was needed with a new system that would "preferably be more proportional".
Its preferred option was a Single Transferable Vote (STV) system in which voters express preferences for individual candidates. Each voter has a single vote, which can be transferred from the voter’s first preference to their second, and so on, if their preferred candidate has either been eliminated or has sufficient votes already to be elected. Voters express their preferences for individual candidates; therefore votes can be transferred across parties.
That commission's second choice was a flexible list system, similarly flexible on the size of the Assembly it could elect and the constituencies upon which it could be based, but providing a balance between voter choice and party influence. It said that using the current system would have the "advantage of familiarity for voters" but would limit the size increase to 80 members.
It is just one of the commissions and committees that has looked at the future of the Senedd. As early as 2004, the Richard Commission recommended an 80 member chamber elected by STV. And in 2020, Senedd committee called on the Committee on Senedd Electoral Reform published a report also calling for 80 to 90 members and STV.
When could change happen?
The next Senedd election is due to be held in May 2026. No one can definitively say that agreement will be reached in time for that to happen but there is consensus it could happen and many think it should. One major stumbling block is the constituency boundaries that should be used. At the moment, Senedd members are elected from constituencies, of which there are 40, and regional lists, of which 20 members come from four regions. This could change all that. It could change to the Westminster boundaries, which being redrawn to shrink the number of Welsh MPs to 32, as you can read about. They could also choose to follow the council boundaries, of which there are 22. Another option is to take the 32 new Westminster boundaries and merge pairs, to make 16. Or they could start afresh.
However changing boundaries takes a long time and relies on a lot of consultation. It would make any Senedd enlargement before the next election in 2026 unlikely. It means that any realistic hope of changes would depend on using either the current seats or draw on the work being done for the Westminster boundaries - which includes looking at the number of electors per area.
What is Welsh Labour's position?
At its conference in Llandudno in March 2022, Labour members unanimously backed a motion. The Electoral Reform Society welcomed that, saying it it was a "huge step forward".
It said: "These reforms are desperately needed. Nearly 25 years after the narrow victory for the campaign for devolution in Wales the Senedd has changed beyond recognition, going from a small Assembly with no government functions and limited powers to a fully fledged Welsh Parliament with law making and tax raising powers. The Senedd has spent the last two years scrutinising major legislation and budgets in the midst of a pandemic and has had just over 40 people to do so, when government ministers, party leaders and Senedd Commission representatives are removed."
The Labour motion said:
- Approve the statement as a whole and welcome the detailed work that lies behind it
- The number of Senedd members should be increased to reflect its significantly enhanced responsibilities within the range of 80 to 100 members
- Conclude the method of election adopted should be at least as proportional as the current method
- Agree a Senedd Boundary Commission should be established and that its remit should ensure that Senedd constituencies contain a broadly equal number of electors, and that if multi-member constituencies are adopted, each elects the same number of MSs
- Recognise that positive steps should be taken to entrench equality in the selection of candidates in the Senedd
- Recognise that any package of reform will require the support of two thirds of Senedd members
- Agree that the necessary negotiations should now take place to bring about reform, within the parameters set out in 2-5 above
- Agree that the outcome of such negotiations should be submitted to a recall conference for ratification
And Plaid?
Plaid Cymru's official statement says it wants to see a "new, gender-balanced Senedd in law by the next election in 2026". "We believe that a gender-balanced legislature must be a fundamental organising principle of our constitution, as well as expanding other similar measures to guarantee representation of people of colour and ethnic minority groups in the Senedd."
WalesOnline understands the motion Plaid members backed at its conference in Cardiff will allow negotiations to continue and the Senedd must be expanded to at least 90, but ideally 100 members. The party hopes for a single transferable vote system and if not, the Multi Member Proportional System (MMPS) is the next best option utilising the Saint-Laguë counting method and will not back first past the post. If you want to know more about voting systems.
In terms of quotas, we understand the party want gender equality and measures to ensure there are people of colour and ethnic minority groups in the Senedd. It also wants a range of between five and eight members per constituency.
What happens next?
Both Plaid Cymru and Labour have now said there will be further negotiations. The Labour motion was much less specific in terms of numbers, quotas and a voting system than Plaid Cymru's was and Labour made clear the outcome of any negotiations would have to go back to a special conference for ratification. We understand however that Plaid Cymru only require the Senedd group, and its NEC to ratify any final position.
The Special Purpose Committee on Senedd Reform, which was set up in the Sixth Senedd, continues to meet and it will report back by May 31, 2022 on recommendations for policy instructions for a Welsh Government Bill on Senedd Reform. There is also a separate commission, the Constitutional Commission, being co-chaired by Prof McAllister and Dr Rowan Williams.
Is there opposition?
In its 2021 party manifesto, the Conservative party ruled out an increase in the number of MSs. Since then, the Conservative group leader Andrew RT Davies has been vocal in his opposition for any expansion of the Senedd. During the Plaid conference he tweeted: "Things Wales needs; More doctors; More nurses; More teachers. Things Wales doesn’t need: More Senedd Members". He's also said: "Wales doesn’t need more Senedd Members. Wales needs proper governance. 1 in 4 people in Wales are on a waiting list. That is because of Labour mismanagement, and no amount of constitutional naval gazing will solve that." However, the Conservative MS Darren Millar remains a member of the Special Purpose Committee on Senedd Reform, which was set up in the Sixth Senedd.
Labour too will likely have some work to do to convince its own delegates that this is a good thing for the party and it could mean tough negotiation. Changes as big as these bring some real unknowns and that will be a worry that Labour could lose its monopoly over power in the Senedd. As part of the Expert Panel report, Professor Roger Scully and Jac Larner of Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre, carried out modelling of what it could mean. They looked at the 2011 and 2016 results to see what it would mean under different voting schemes, and under STV (the one Plaid says it is now most keen on) Labour did noticeably less well. For example, in 2016, Labour got 48% of the seats, and under STV with 17 constituencies it would have been 41%. Support for the Conservatives, Plaid and the Lib Dems all increased. And if it were 20 constituencies, Labour would have 40% of the seats (down from 48%).
While there was some optimism that the motion passed in Llandudno with unanimous support, the test will come now the negotiations start. Mark Drakeford may be in a powerful position in terms of a fairly blank canvas from Labour, and negotiations can start in earnest. From Labour's point of view, the test comes when he takes a deal back to the special conference and asks the different factions of his party to back it. Can he deliver a change as big as STV before 2026? Some say believe that is unlikely, and added to that is his insistence he will stand down as leader before the next election it adds to the pressure, however, if Plaid will go its second choice option, it could happen for 2026.
Plaid Cymru has laid its cards on the table, and now Adam Price will have to weigh up which of those things are red lines and which are negotiable.
All in all, there is no easy answer or definitive timeline, but there is definitely movement towards change.
