Matthew Stafford came into 2022 beat up. Offseason elbow surgery forced him to miss a string of preseason practices and games. When he finally took the field for meaningful snaps, the high octane arm strength that defined his career seemed to be missing.
The hope was it would come back over time. After all, Stafford shook off a bum elbow late in 2021 and still rallied the Los Angeles Rams to a Super Bowl win. This season, however feels different.
And it’s because the Rams offensive line can’t keep its overwhelmed veteran quarterback upright.
Stafford’s sack rate had doubled between last season and the first four weeks of 2022, from 4.8 to 9.6. On Sunday, at home against a Dallas Cowboy team that leads the league in quarterback pressures, Stafford was stuck running for his life and, entirely too often, peeling himself up from the SoFi Stadium turf in a 22-10 loss that dropped the reigning champions to 2-3 on the season.
i'm beginning to feel legitimately bad for Matthew Stafford pic.twitter.com/N6hI6IumWG
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 9, 2022
Stafford was sacked five times and hit 11 more on 47 dropbacks. The third-and-long pressure above from Osa Odighizuwa forced an interception that squashed any chance of a late fourth quarter comeback from the home team. This Micah Parsons strip sack wrapped the game up in a neat little bow and, incredibly, improved Cooper Rush to 4-0 as a starting quarterback this fall.
Micah. Parsons. just. did. that. 😤 #DALvsLAR pic.twitter.com/A6gw9kOwFa
— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2022
Along with Dorance Armstrong’s strip sack that became DeMarcus Lawrence’s fumble return for a touchdown, all three of LA’s turnovers were created by the Dallas pass rush. Two of them came deep in Cowboy territory and one directly resulted in six points. It’s not an exaggeration to suggest this was the defining line between winning and losing for the Rams.
It’s not difficult to see what the problem is here; the Los Angeles offensive line stinks. Stafford, who came into Week 5 as the league’s 21st-best quarterback (per advanced stats), is suffering as a result.
The sack rate is a telling indicator of how much static Stafford has dealt with in the pocket. He attempted 3.8 deep throws per game in 2021; that number was down to 3.0 over the first four games of the season. While he was able to make Tutu Atwell’s first NFL catch a memorable one early:
.@tutuatwell making plays! 👀
📺: #DALvsLAR on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/dCuo7DIlNd pic.twitter.com/HSUCpUssAF— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2022
He failed to connect on any of the four deep throws that followed, including the Malik Hooker interception above. He’s only completed three throws 20-plus yards downfield in 2022 — 0.6 per game. Last year he was good for 29 in 17 games, or 1.7 each week.
Obviously that’s had an affect on the offense. Cooper Kupp’s average catch distance has dropped from 7.6 yards to 5.3. The run game is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry, the fourth-worst number in the NFL. The offensive line plays a massive role there as well. The team’s 1.9 yards before contact on running plays is third-worst in the NFL this fall.
This is a big deal. Stafford’s offense ranked eighth in expected points added per play (EPA) in 2021 at 0.082. This year’s edition clocks in at 28th thanks to a -0.094 score — just behind the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos, each of whom operate their offenses in a primarily hypothetical realm.
The defense has been slightly worse — 5.6 yards per play allowed compared to 5.2 last season — but that hasn’t really mattered because Los Angeles is getting the crap beaten out of it when it loses. All three of the team’s defeats have come by at least 12 points. The Rams haven’t scored more than 10 points in any of those contests.
What’s the difference? There’s plenty of turnover on the LA line, beginning with left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who retired in February at age 40 after finally earning a Super Bowl ring. Swing tackle Joe Noteboom filled his spot in the starting lineup and was credited for five of Stafford’s 16 sacks in the first four games of the season, per PFF.
Right guard Austin Corbett left in the offseason to sign a $26 million deal with the Carolina Panthers. Left guard David Edwards missed last week’s game against the Niners as part of the league’s concussion protocol and left Sunday’s game against the Cowboys with a potential head injury, which is troubling.
Replacement guard Coleman Shelton earned a 49.9 PFF grade (out of 100) before being placed on injured reserve. Alaric Jackson, a 2021 undrafted free agent who made just four appearances as a rookie, joined the starting lineup and has vacillated between average and underwhelming as he gets up to speed in the NFL.
This is the gamble general manager Les Snead embraced. His top-heavy, star-studded lineup pushed the limits of the league’s salary cap and welcomed veteran contributors to the lineup at the expense of low-cost draft picks whose depth could have helped prevent this. This offensive line wasn’t very good when everyone is healthy; if these trends continue, it’ll be a disaster by the end of the regular season.
That’s Sean McVay’s challenge. There is no easy fix, barring some kind of miracle Snead trade that brings in two Pro Bowl caliber linemen in exchange for LA’s 2028 and 2030 first round picks. He’s got to develop an offense that creates space for Stafford to throw and likely can’t use play-action passes to get there because, let’s be honest, defenses don’t exactly respect his run game right now.
The Rams are broken. The only obvious fix is for a lot of young, unheralded players or free agent pickups to slide into the system and make incredible improvements at a ludicrous rate. Otherwise Stafford’s going to continue to get the crap beaten out of him until he finally suffers a hit he can’t shake off.
Los Angeles has a problem. If McVay and Snead can fix it, they deserve every ounce of praise that’s been heaped on them the past few years.
