All season long, the Heat were—at best—a middling team. They were 25th in offense. Their net rating of minus-0.5 was worse than some teams who missed the playoffs. They shot the 10th most three-pointers in the league but converted at the fourth-worst rate. And, by Game 4 of their first-round series against the Bucks, they were missing their second-highest scorer and one of their top reserves.
So of course Miami pulled off one of the greatest upsets in NBA history, knocking out the Bucks—the No. 1 seed of the entire league—in a thrilling, 128–126 Game 5 victory Wednesday. The Heat won the series 4–1, taking care of the title favorite and two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in the process.
It’s hard to count the ways this Heat win was improbable, but we’re going to try. (Bucks fans, consider this a warning.) After posting a 112.3 offensive rating in the regular season, Miami put up 119.0 points per 100 possessions against Milwaukee—which has a top-five defense. After shooting a brick house-building 34.4% from three over its first 82 games, Miami shot 45.0% in the first round, the best of any team in the postseason field. Compared to the regular season, Miami improved its field goal percentage from every area of the floor: at the rim, the nonrestricted area of the paint, midrange, above-the-break threes and corner threes. Heck, Duncan Robinson, who went from playing only 16.4 minutes a night before the playoffs and catching a bunch of DNPs, played in every game of the series and shot 73.7% from deep.
