This year's local elections in Newport are likely to be hotly contested, with Conservatives aiming to wrestle some close seats away from the Labour-led council. With 16 councillors not putting their names up for re-election in Newport, a number of boundary changes and local issues vying with national concerns, there is uncertainty over which way some wards in the city might go in this year's local government elections on Thursday, May 5.
The Welsh Conservatives are hopeful that strong campaigning on local issues will help them claim victory seats in some hotly-contested wards, while the Liberal Democrats and independents are also hoping to mount a challenge to Labour, which has controlled the council since 2012. Boundary changes confirmed last year mean Newport’s number of councillors will increase by 1, taking the council from 50 to 51 members and increasing the number of wards from 20 to 2021.
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Here is a look at some of the key areas in Newport where the elections on May 5 could be won and lost.
Lliswerry
There could be a battle in four-seat ward Lliswerry where four current councillors face competition from both conservatives and independents. Labour's Roger Jeavons and John Richards were elected comfortably in 2017 and are running again, but their councillor Ken Critchley is not running this year as he has been absent from recent meetings due to ill health.
There is stiff competition in the ward from four well known independents including Andrew Sterry, who ran under the Ukip banner in 2017, as well as from Conservative Luke Thompson.
Victoria
Two-seater Victoria was Labour in 2017 but neither candidate is running this time around. One seat is likely to be taken by relative newcomer Farzina Hussain, the Labour councillor elected by a landslide in a by-election held last May to replace Labour councillor Christine Jenkins, who resigned due to ill health. The other could be filled by cafe owner Gavin Horton, the newest member of Newport City Council after being elected for Labour at a by-election in December following Majid Rahmaan's sudden resignation.
Challenges in this ward are expected to come from Bilal Meah and Faisal Rahman, two Tory candidates with strong followings in the community, while shop owner Annette Farmer is also running under the Newport Independents Party banner. The Lib Dems are also expected to challenge for a seat, having come close back in 2017.
Tredegar Park and Marshfield
This newly-formed ward combines Tregedar Park and Marshfield but retains the same number of seats (3) overall. Tory councillors Richard White and Tom Suller were easily elected in Marshfield five years ago but aren't running, but the party has three candidates in the race - Wentloog Community Council chairman Brian Miles, Wayne Anthony Cresswell and Sarah Louise Nurse.
Labour councillor Trevor Watkins is also hoping for a seat, while teacher Shane Williams, who lives in Dubai, is running for Neil McEvoy's pro-Welsh independence party Propel.
Caerleon
Five years ago Caerleon was one of the closest races, with less than 300 votes separating six candidates in a three-seat ward which eventually saw two Labour and one Tory candidate elected. Of those, Labour's Jason Hughes and Tory Joan Watkins - who was suspended from the council for three months in October after she made a "threatening" phone call to a GP surgery - are hoping to retain their seats. They will be up against a packed field which includes three Labour candidates, three Tories and two Lib Dems.
Rogerstone
Formerly a four-seater, Rogerstone has been split into three wards - Rogerstone East (one seat), Rogerstone North (one seat) and Rogerstone West (two seats). Conservative Valerie Dudley topped the vote last time but is not running this time, while independent Chris Evans confirmed earlier this month he was not standing for re-election after he was caught with a sex worker in his car last year.
With an extra seat up for grabs and only one incumbent - Labour's Yvonne Forsey - seeking re-election, there's going to be three new councillors elected in another crowded field dominated by Labour and the Conservatives.
St Julians
St Julians was an anomaly last time out, becoming the ward where Liberal Democrats had their only two councillors elected in the city. Both Carmel Townsend and Oliver Townsend are running as well as the party's colourful former councillor Mike Hamilton, who was a former cabinet member in 2012.
After a torrid time at the Senedd elections, the Lib Dems are optimistic of retaining their seats but face tough competition from Labour in the three-seater ward. There's also Tory local campaigner Michael Enea, who polled over 10,000 votes at last year's Senedd elections having campaigned aggressively on local issues and the M4 relief road and is likely to poll strongly.
Observations
Conservative candidate in Allt-yr-yn Matthew Evans said there would be some "fascinating contests" in the city with local issues such as the state of the city centre and public transport at the forefront. He said independents "seem to be doing quite well" in Lliswerry and that it was "completely unusual" for seats to be up for grabs in Victoria.
"We have got two strong candidates who are very active in the community - that will be a fascinating contest," he said. "It's a seat which doesn't tend to go along party lines, with a high ethnic population."
Mr Evans also said Tories were putting up a "strong fight" in Malpas, where the party's candidate lost out on a seat by around 30 votes in 2017. While he insisted he was making no predictions on whether or not Tories would build on their 13 current seats, he said local issues were likely to define the close races.
"There's a degree of national politics but things like the state of the city centre, the begging, parking at Tredegar Park and Fourteen Locks, are going down very well in those areas. The unreliability of bus services has come up as well."
Oliver Townsend, Chair of the Newport Liberal Democrats, said the election was "probably the strangest we've campaigned in in a long time" and that many on the doors were unhappy with Labour locally and the Conservatives nationally.
"Seats in St Julians, Victoria and Beechwood, where we used to hold seats, will be interesting. A lot will hinge on whether people vote based on local or national issues.
"There's huge concern about the city centre and I think people want action in a strategic way. People think the market is great - the question they have is 'what next?' There's also fly-tipping and the cleanliness in the city. Crime is leaving people feeling out of control and there is a sense that they feel they are not being listened to. There is a feeling of neglect, decline and being taken for granted."
Jane Mudd, leader of the Labour group in Newport, said residents were "very concerned about the Tory cost of living crisis. People are worried about the impact of soaring inflation on their home energy bills, the cost of food and clothing, and the rising costs of fuel.
"The cost of everything is rising and it's hitting households hard. This is something that is coming up in every ward and our teams are listening to residents. We are signposting people to help and advice and providing support," she said.
Ms Mudd said the party had "worked hard to support families and communities" by increasing funding for food banks, giving social care workers the real living wage, supporting disadvantaged children with home learning equipment and providing free public transport in the city in March.
She said residents supported the party's commitments to roll out more free school meals, affordable housing and public transport, and cited the likes of the renovated Newport market and upcoming leisure centre and Coleg Gwent campus as positives.
"We're getting great feedback on our candidates on the doorstep; our residents are telling us that they welcome the range and diversity of candidates - a librarian, a firefighter, ex-steel workers, former NHS nurse, business owners, youth workers, a postal worker, telecoms engineer, lecturers, an ex-police officer, an antiques dealer, St John's ambulance volunteer, shop workers, a GP, a taxi driver, a youth football coach, union reps, housing professionals, a social worker and qualified teachers. Our candidates reflect the communities that they will be proud to serve," she added.
