The ethnic violence in Manipur and the Centre’s purported move to draft a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) seem to have affected the BJP’s carefully choreographed outreach to the minorities in Kerala.
Across the country, there is conflict and debate over the UCC and angst about the situation in Manipur. But nowhere is it as intense as in Kerala, given the State’s unique demographics. Muslims, who constitute 28.6% of the State’s population, and Christians, who constitute 18.4%, are both crucial voting blocs.
Christian households in Central and North Kerala have seen their incomes plummet due to low prices of cash crops. The failure of successive Congress and CPI(M) governments to guarantee a good price for rubber and spices has left the community disillusioned. The BJP has been attempting to convince Christians that the Modi government is a better bet for their economic and social prospects than the Congress or the CPI(M). It has also spoken to the Church’s irrational fears about the conspiratorial “love and narcotic jihad”.
The BJP is under no delusion that Christians would flock to the party in overwhelming numbers at one stroke. However, it believes that even a perceived shift in Christian support could throw the Congress into a state of disarray and leave the the CPI(M) dismayed ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The party’s bid to make inroads into the community received a big boost a few months ago when the influential Syro-Malabar Catholic Church said that it would support the BJP if the Central government took steps to improve the condition of rubber cultivators and hike the minimum support price for rubber to ₹300.
But that bonhomie has not lasted for long. When violence broke out in Manipur, Joseph Pamplany, the archbishop of the Syro-Malabar Catholic Church, likened the situation to the 2002 Gujarat riots. He said the “savagery” overwhelmingly targeted Christians, and faulted the BJP-led government in Manipur for “covertly sanctioning” violence against the community. He also railed against the Centre’s determination to implement the UCC. He called for solidarity against the legislation “calibrated to crush diversity and personal laws”.
The UCC debate has signalled a possibly tectonic shift in Muslim politics in North Kerala. Opposing Sunni groups led by Kanthapuram A.P. Aboobacker Musliyar, who is perceived to be inclined towards the Left, and Sayed Jifri Muthukkoya Thangal, who is said to support the Indian Union Muslim League, closed ranks in the face of the UCC threat, signalling unity in minority voting in the general elections. However, the jury is out on whether the CPI(M)-led ruling front or the Congress-led Opposition will benefit the most from the supposed consolidation of Muslim votes.
The BJP is struggling to appeal to the voters in Kerala and urge them to trust its intentions. Union Minister of State for External Affairs V. Muraleedharan said the UCC would not infringe on the rights guaranteed to minorities under relevant articles of the Constitution. He said the CPI(M) and Congress appeared afraid to debate the UCC and that Article 44 of the Constitution envisaged it. He urged Muslims and Christians not to fall for the CPI(M) and Congress’s scaremongering.
The party’s Kerala ‘Prabhari’ (in-charge) Prakash Javadekar said the CPI(M), which batted for a UCC, has taken a page out of vote bank politics and reversed course. He said the UCC remained in force in Goa and Puducherry and that the Muslims in those areas had “no complaints”. He claimed that a uniform and secular set of laws was imperative for ensuring gender justice. The UCC was in tune with the Constitution’s founding principles, Mr. Javadekar asserted, but “unfortunately, the IUML opposed the UCC”.
The CPI(M) and Congress seem to have picked up on this resentment and fear. They have signalled that they plan to point to the Manipur violence and the UCC proposal as reasons why voters should reject the BJP in 2024.
All this means that the BJP has to develop a new way to navigate these challenges. Though unemployment in Kerala is high and the CPI(M) government is facing corruption charges as well as questions about its control of varsities, it is the UCC and Manipur which seem to dominate the discourse among the minority communities in Kerala. The BJP would be keen to change the narrative.
