Donald Trump is barreling his Republican Party towards a midterm election that could once again mark defeat for a president at war with Americans’ perceptions of the economy under his watch.
With the GOP still struggling to pass any meaningful legislation and voters generally judging his progress on fighting high prices as slow, the president can’t afford any major political setbacks as Republicans battle to defend slim majorities in both chambers.
A familiar problem is arising, however: the war with Iran — a war that represents a violation of one of Trump’s central campaign promises to avoid any new foreign military conflicts — has caused gas prices to shoot up by an average of nearly 50 cents per gallon nationwide in the week and a half since the U.S. and Israel began a campaign of targeted strikes aimed at destroying Iran’s military and forcing regime change upon its government.
Prices are now far north of $3 per gallon in most states, and in some are much higher. Trump has suddenly found himself facing a classic Washington debacle: Not credited for drops in gas prices when they occur, but blamed for sharp spikes that clearly follow White House policy decisions.
Gas panic hit Washington this week as the White House hastily tried to reassure Americans.
“Once the national security objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved, Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly, potentially even lower than they were prior to the start of the operation, and we will live in a world where Iran can no longer threaten the United States or our allies with a nuclear bomb,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt promised.
Trump himself also found it impossible to deny reality any longer. Dropping his former pretense around having supposedly seen prices “below $2.30 a gallon in most states” during his State of the Union speech days before the operation in Iran began, even the president is now admitting Americans are feeling an economic squeeze.
"They'll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit,” he told Reuters in an interview last week. On Tuesday he continued threatening Iranian forces over efforts to restrict shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Republicans on Capitol Hill have a darker image of the situation. Some who’ve broken with the president on other issues, like Sen. Rand Paul, were unbothered by the need to protect the White House’s feelings as they diagnosed the situation.
“I think high oil prices will be a problem [in the midterms],” Paul told Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Tuesday. “I think if you add in high gas prices, high oil prices, and if we are still bombing Iran with ‘kinetic action’ – people don’t want to call it a war – if there’s still kinetic action causing oil to be over $100 [a barrel], you’re going to see a disastrous election [for the GOP].”
Rep. Austin Scott, a Georgia Republican, told Reuters on the sidelines of the House GOP retreat: "Every day that people pull into the gas station and pay what they're paying for fuel, I mean, it hurts, and we know it hurts.”
Republicans took a political bludgeoning in 2008, the last time a GOP president’s unpopular war in the Middle East caused oil prices to shoot up. Turning the tables, the party attempted to use high gas prices resulting from the Ukraine War against their Democratic foes in 2022 as they sought to retake the House and Senate from the Democrats under Joe Biden’s presidency. They succeeded in retaking the lower chamber, but were hamstrung by controversial and untested candidates in their bid to retake the Senate, which ended in failure.
Conversely, in 2024, a drop in gas prices aided Democrats at the polls in the fall even as the top of their ticket was forced out of the race and replaced by his running mate. Democrats still suffered a massive defeat, but many statewide candidates ran ahead of the top of the ticket in November.
Sen. Rick Scott told MS NOW that prices would dip back down in the future after Trump’s warmaking efforts in Venezuela and now Iran yielded better results.
“The prices are going to come back down when Venezuela starts producing more oil,” Scott said. “and when Iran gets a government that wants to be part of the world economy.”
Some estimates suggest that it could be years before Venezuela is able to meaningfully ramp up its oil production, which right now accounts for about 1% of global oil production. Trump and his party do not have years, but months: The primary season has already begun, and voters are quite likely to hold a grudge over economic pain that lasts for much longer, even if it subsides.
Most Republicans in Congress are adamant that they don’t believe this will happen. Instead, they argue, Trump’s military operation will wrap up soon, causing prices to drop back down in the near term. Somewhat revealingly, many of those same Republicans are calling on the White House to do exactly that and declare and end to the war with hints of desperation in their pleadings.
“I think that [Trump’s] achieved his objectives,” Sen. Josh Hawley told Fox News on Tuesday evening. “What is there really that's left to do that we haven't already done? It's time to declare victory.”
Hawley is not running for re-election this year. For many of his colleagues, however, their electoral fates could well be tied to the president taking his advice before his poll numbers on handling the economy drop any lower.
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