The Labour party’s century-long dominance in Wales has few parallels in the democratic world. Emerging as the largest party in every general election since 1922, Welsh Labour has also won all six Senedd polls following devolution in 1999. In Tim Price’s acclaimed play, Nye, Aneurin Bevan declares: “I am a Welshman. I am a socialist.” For millions of voters in past generations, that merging of national and political identity was an everyday fact of life.
This unique history lends some perspective to a remarkable poll last week, which suggests that next May’s Senedd elections could deliver not so much an upset as a revolution. According to YouGov, the Welsh nationalists of Plaid Cymru narrowly lead voting intentions at 30%, with Reform UK one point behind. Labour are a dismal third on 14%. Next month a Senedd byelection in Caerphilly – in Labour’s traditional south Wales heartland – will offer an early indication of whether such an epic meltdown is truly on the cards. Polling this month put the party of Bevan in third place there as well.
