Steadily, ominously, the stakes are rising in the confrontation that Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has provoked with the west. Russia’s state energy company Gazprom halted gas supplies to two EU member states – Poland and Bulgaria – on Wednesday and warned that more countries could be similarly targeted. Poland, with good reason, described this as a “direct attack”. Moscow is also talking darkly of delivering a “proportionate response” to the demonisation of Russia by western governments. On Tuesday, Mr Putin’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, accused Nato of “engaging in a war with Russia through a proxy”. The risk of nuclear escalation, he said, was becoming “considerable”.
Economic warfare and apocalyptic threats can be read as signs of Russia’s bitter frustration at the way events have unfolded since February. The scale and practical value of western solidarity with Ukraine – in the form of sanctions, financial aid and military assistance – have come as an unpleasant surprise to the Kremlin. The humiliating failure of Mr Putin’s initial plan to capture Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government was down to the bravery and skill of those who fought to defend their country. But external military assistance was crucial in giving the country’s armed forces sufficient means to resist.
