In the hours following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, every moment that Kyiv could hold out was regarded as a victory. Many – not only in the Kremlin – expected it to fall within days. Vladimir Putin’s hubris, Russian military shortcomings, courageous Ukrainian resistance and the sight of western nations rushing to show support created a glimmer of hope. Three and a half months on, the picture has darkened again. After Mariupol, Bucha and others, the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk is the latest scene of civilian suffering.
Kyiv faces two immense challenges. The first is that Russia’s military has regrouped, concentrating its efforts on the Donbas, improving logistics and making other adjustments. The war has, for now at least, turned in its favour. It continues to make incremental gains while suffering severe losses of personnel and equipment. Ukraine has the will, but Russia has a tenfold advantage in firepower, according to Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi. It is also easier to take a town if you do not mind destroying it. Ukraine, on its own estimates, is losing more than 100 soldiers a day, with hundreds more injured, and is increasingly reliant on enthusiastic but inexperienced newer recruits.
