When tens of thousands of lives have been lost, and Ukrainians remain under Russian occupation or assault, it seems perverse to focus on symbolism. The harsh reality is that the country faces another cold, bleak winter, locked in a military stalemate, with more wounded soldiers and grieving families. It needs massive material support to continue its fight.
Yet the EU’s agreement to open membership talks with Ukraine – and Moldova – on Thursday is nonetheless welcome and important. While the path to accession is in reality long and winding, this decision reaffirms solidarity with Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelenskiy greeted it as a triumph for both his country and Europe: “A victory that motivates, inspires, and strengthens.”
Many had feared that Viktor Orbán, Vladimir Putin’s closest ally in the EU, would block the move. Instead, Hungary’s prime minister took the highly unusual step of effectively abstaining at the Brussels summit. What some have portrayed as unaccustomed deftness on the part of Olaf Scholz – with the German chancellor suggesting that he step outside for a coffee while others voted – is clearly not the critical part of the story. Unfreezing some of the frozen EU funding for Hungary following judicial reforms doubtless helped. But a highly transactional leader has presumably cut an unspecified deal off stage.
Though Mr Orbán was correct to say that Hungary could pull the handbrake in future, that was a message for his domestic audience. The fact is, he is allowing negotiations to proceed now.
Yet, hours later, he blocked a €50bn aid package for Ukraine, which diplomats thought would be an easier sell. This is the second blow to Kyiv this week. Though Mr Zelenskiy travelled to Washington to try to bolster support for his nation, Republicans continue to hold up $61bn in aid, demanding a draconian border crackdown as the price. The going is only likely to get tougher in the US.
The picture in Europe is somewhat different. Many believe Mr Orbán is primarily concerned with extracting more of the frozen funds and reshaping the broader EU budget – a much more fractious subject in the bloc than the spending on Ukraine. He is probably emboldened by polls predicting that European parliamentary elections will see big wins for the far right next summer, providing more sympathetic company. And he may have felt that saying no to the money gave him political cover for allowing accession talks to go ahead. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has said he is confident that Mr Orbán will approve the aid next month rather than block funds for his own country. Failing that, alternative mechanisms could be used.
Mr Putin was confident enough to hold his traditional end-of-year press conference on Thursday, having cancelled 2022’s. He believes time is on his side, especially if Donald Trump returns to the presidency. Mr Putin can cast the accession talks as the EU stringing Kyiv along. And he, too, hopes European politics will turn in his favour. But just as Moscow has failed to make a decisive breakthrough on the battlefield, so it has yet to do so in this regard. The very real possibility on Thursday was that Mr Orbán would veto accession talks. Ukraine has always had to fight a political as well as a military war. In seeing off what would have been a major blow – the blocking of negotiations – the EU has reaffirmed that Kyiv does not fight alone.
