Amid the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of the president, Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump’s announcement that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a truly chilling precedent. The US has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its first major military attack on South American land. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Mr Trump declared. The decision to unilaterally attack another country and abduct its leader – days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.
Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, would follow US instructions, and dismissed the rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement. But Ms Rodríguez, now interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the decapitated regime are more hardline.
A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state. He believes the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities and elsewhere. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.
George W Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them. Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism. He has not ruled out military action over Greenland and told Fox News: “Something is going to have to be done with Mexico.”
No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. And Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.
The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from the UN’s secretary general, António Guterres, was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance. Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and the Epstein files increase his appetite for distraction.
We are not yet 12 months in to his four-year term. Sir Keir Starmer and others may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.
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