The Trump administration, with its customary rhetorical inflation, has hailed its mineral deal with Ukraine as “historic”. What the world’s most powerful nation says and does matters. But how much? And for how long? This is a government of caprice and chaos. Attempting to connect the data points can be like trying to join up the bug splats on a windscreen. The real issue is that the vehicle is still following the signs for Moscow.
This moment looks like a high because US-Ukraine ties hit such a low, particularly with the Oval Office bullying of Volodymyr Zelenskyy and reports that Washington is willing to recognise annexed Crimea as Russian. Key details of this deal have yet to be finalised in a technical agreement. The idea originated with Kyiv, which saw that economic incentives might be the only way to interest the money-minded US president in its defence. The Trump administration decided the answer was, in essence, to take all the resources without granting the security guarantee that Ukraine had sought. It looked a bit like a protection racket, without ongoing protection.
