At the Conservative manifesto launch on Tuesday, Rishi Sunak offered a selection of gimmicks not a strategy, and a compendium of uncosted promises instead of a plan. The result was a slapdash manifesto, with large areas of government responsibility almost wholly ignored. It offered the same old prejudices and the same old policy reflexes to the same old audience.
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour manifesto launch in Manchester on Thursday could hardly have been more different. A party that looked into the electoral abyss in 2019 now stands on the threshold of government – and it showed. Labour has raised its game, and the manifesto rollout was optimistic and professional.
Sir Keir’s speech was almost painfully aware of how much is at stake. Everything was part of a plan for renewal. No area of policy was left out. There were no surprises. It was all very thorough, conscientious and, in its way, impressive. The contrast between Mr Sunak’s desperate insouciance and Sir Keir’s unmistakable gravity suggests that each is well aware where they will be a month from now.
Sir Keir calls his manifesto “a plan to change Britain”. Millions will hope he is right. He certainly offers a very different – as well as a better and more competent – approach than the Conservatives. But the question hanging over the manifesto is the same question that is hanging over the election as a whole. Does Labour actually have the vision and programme – Sir Keir would call it a mission – one that can transform Britain as the country requires after the neoliberal years while continuing to command public support?
The manifesto talks the language of big ideas – ideas that sound even bigger after the Conservative years. Rebuilding a broken country. A total change of direction. Long term not short term. A fairer and healthier country. A country at the service of working people.
If words were everything, Sir Keir and his party would be home and dry. The manifesto is well structured and logical, and its language is focused. It pays attention to issues ranging from NHS reform to music teaching and House of Lords reform. But it does not answer the overarching question about Labour’s ability to carry through its change agenda definitively.
At the heart of the manifesto is Labour’s commitment to stable economic growth as the underpinning of renewal. Wealth creation is the number one priority, said Sir Keir on Thursday, and growth must be Britain’s core business. Sixteen years after the financial crisis began sending real incomes and public services into reverse, many will agree. In a climate crisis, however, these are not uncontroversial goals.
But nor is it obvious that Labour can make them work. We don’t have a magic wand, said Sir Keir. That is true. But he is self-denying too. He does not want to borrow or to tax more either. The change that Labour promises will therefore be a longer haul than many may expect – especially if Rachel Reeves sticks to the existing Tory fiscal dogma. A lot is riding on Labour’s ability to persuade and cajole business to behave very differently from the ways it has grown used to. This will not be easy, to put it mildly, especially if Europe and the US shift to the right.
Sir Keir also has to keep his voters onside through stagnant economic times. Labour’s current poll lead is large. But it appears based more on dissatisfaction with the Tories than enthusiasm for Labour or Sir Keir personally. Even if the Conservatives implode, Labour’s lead will not last for ever. Confidence in a government of any stripe is at rock bottom, the British Social Attitudes Survey pointed out this week. When things go wrong, Labour will be blamed. When that happens, the unity and optimism on display on Thursday may prove to have been only skin deep.
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