Whatever else Donald Trump’s “pause” is, it is not a ceasefire. Iranian barrages targeted Israel, Gulf Arab states and northern Iraq on Tuesday, while Israeli and US warplanes struck across Iran. What Mr Trump’s statement did was to narrow US targets to exclude power plants and energy infrastructure to calm jittery markets. But the fighting continues. With reports that the US is considering boots on the ground, Washington is waging war while searching for an exit – without a credible or unified negotiating position, as Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu pursues his own agenda.
Mr Trump’s strategy, if he has one, might be to soothe markets now – and launch a massive escalatory strike over the weekend when trading desks are closed, in the hope of forcing the Iranian regime to fracture or capitulate. This rests on the idea that Tehran is brittle and will crack under American “shock and awe”. Sir Keir Starmer’s implicit judgment is that Iran will not cave. That disagreement may have been enough to send him to Mr Trump’s doghouse. Britain must stay out of US-Israeli adventurism. The war’s constraint is not capability – Washington has plenty of air power and Iran offers plenty of targets. But nothing can be resolved without a politically achievable objective.
