The Guardian view on the global baby bust: people are having fewer children – even where they say they want more

‘Governments should focus on understanding how their populations are changing, and preparing for that, rather than making futile attempts to reverse the decline.’ Photograph: Natalia Lebedinskaia/Getty Images

The global fall in fertility rates has arrived faster and spread further than anticipated. Two-thirds of people now live in countries that have slipped below the replacement rate – 2.1 births per woman – required for a stable population. Last month, India revealed that its fertility rate had fallen to just 1.9. The world’s two most populous nations, which pursued cruel and coercive policies to cut births, both face shrinking populations. China’s fertility rate is now around 1, and births last year fell below 8 million – just over half the number projected when the “one child” policy was axed 10 years ago, and comparable to the total in 1738, when its population was 150 million.

It’s further proof that what was seen as a phenomenon of rich nations has spread far beyond them. East Asia led the way. But Albania and Chile have far lower rates than the US or England and Wales (themselves experiencing record lows of 1.6 and 1.4).