Less than a year before the most important French presidential election in the history of the Fifth Republic, the phoney war is almost over. On 7 July, a court will decide whether to uphold Marine Le Pen’s appeal against a fraud conviction and a five-year ban from public office. Should she lose, her party’s 30‑year‑old president, Jordan Bardella, will be confirmed as Rassemblement National’s candidate and the frontrunner in the race.
Voters will need to wait considerably longer, however, for clarity over who will oppose the far right. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the veteran leader of the radical-left party La France Insoumise (LFI), has already announced a fourth tilt at the presidency. But as Emmanuel Macron approaches the end of a second term blighted by unforced errors, multiple egos are jostling on the centre-left and the centre-right, amid a frantic weighing of the odds.
