The general election of July 2024 did not just call time on a decade and a half of Conservative rule. It also delivered the most pro-Union parliament since the early 2010s, when the meteoric rise in support for the Scottish National party (SNP) began. In Scotland, a 16-point swing away from the SNP allowed Labour to win the most votes and most seats; in Wales, Plaid Cymru made modest gains but won only four places in the House of Commons, compared to 27 for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
Since then, the many missteps of Sir Keir’s government have contributed to a swift and remarkable reversal of fortunes. In May’s Senedd elections, Plaid is on course to replace Labour as the largest party in Wales for the first time since devolution. Also profiting from the government’s woes, a revived SNP has weathered its own scandals to lead comfortably in polling for the Scottish parliament. At the party’s spring conference on Saturday, its leader, John Swinney, pointed to the “absolutely seismic” possibility that come 8 May, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (which does not vote again until next year) could all have first ministers in place committed to taking their countries out of the United Kingdom.
