It is seven days since Sir Jeffrey Donaldson’s bombshell resignation as leader of the Democratic Unionist party following his arrest on sexual offences charges that he denies. For the largest unionist party in Northern Ireland to have survived such a week without any further political damage is no small achievement, given Sir Jeffrey’s previous dominance of the party and the DUP’s internal divisions. That it has done so is compelling proof of the collective peril that faced the party – and unionist politics more generally – following his announcement. For once, though, the DUP acted decisively, and as one. Now, its more enduring challenge begins.
Sir Jeffrey was DUP leader for only three years, but he was the party’s pivotal figure for much longer than that. Forty years ago, he worked for Enoch Powell, a doctrinaire intellectual unionist. Last week, he was still working with Michelle O’Neill, a staunch republican. Sir Jeffrey was, within his limits, a pragmatic politician in a party that is reflexively suspicious of compromise. He was also the decisive voice in the DUP over the past decade. Having collapsed the devolved institutions two years ago in protest at the Irish Sea trade border checks in the post-Brexit Northern Ireland protocol, he was the indispensable deal-maker who made resumption of the power-sharing executive possible in February.
In the short term, the departed leader’s lieutenants and policies still hold sway in the DUP. How long this will continue is uncertain. The unanimous choice of Gavin Robinson as the party’s new Westminster leader represents continuity. The position of Emma Little-Pengelly, another Donaldson ally, as Northern Ireland’s deputy first minister alongside Ms O’Neill is secure for now too. Most important of all, there have been no moves yet from within the DUP to bring down the power-sharing institutions again. Nor should there be. Like the people of Northern Ireland generally, most DUP voters support the resumption of devolved government. Another pullout would be bad for Northern Ireland and self‑destructive for the DUP.
Yet any stability may be deceptive. In a recent poll, DUP support had fallen by four points from last autumn, to 24%. Sir Jeffrey has yet to decide whether to resign as an MP before the UK general election, which would trigger a byelection in Lagan Valley that the DUP may lose, or whether to defend the seat as an independent. Mr Robinson, meanwhile, faces a tough fight to hold on to his marginal constituency in Belfast East. Ms Little-Pengelly has won plaudits for her approach so far, but she was very much Sir Jeffrey’s proxy, and he is no longer there to stand with her. She faces a tricky decision on whether to run for the party deputy leadership now vacated by Mr Robinson. A defeat for her in that contest would be damaging.
The much larger long-term issue is whether the DUP can adapt and respond, and become the authoritative political voice of Northern Ireland unionism again, or whether there is now a three-way contest for that role between the DUP, the Ulster Unionists and a rejectionist party such as Traditional Unionist Voice. If the latter, then another militant challenge to the Brexit deal would be more likely. So too would the prospect of Sinn Féin continuing to dominate Northern Ireland’s Westminster, assembly and local government elections more strongly, with the prospect of a border poll becoming more real. Either way, a more volatile post-Donaldson unionist era is now the new reality.
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